95 تجار الفوركس يفقدون المال

اكتشف العلماء لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ 24 إحصاءات مثيرة للدهشة.
اكتشف العلماء لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ 24 إحصاءات مثيرة للدهشة.
& # 8220؛ 95٪ من جميع التجار يفشلون & # 8221؛ هو الإحصائيات ذات الصلة الأكثر استخداما التداول عبر الإنترنت. ولكن لا توجد ورقة بحثية تثبت هذا العدد الصحيح. وتشير الأبحاث إلى أن الرقم الفعلي هو أعلى بكثير. في المقال التالي نحن & # 8217؛ سوف تظهر لك 24 إحصاءات مثيرة للدهشة جدا علماء الاقتصاد اكتشفت من خلال تحليل البيانات وسيط الفعلي وأداء التجار. يفسر البعض جيدا لماذا معظم التجار يفقدون المال.
80٪ من جميع التجار اليوم استقال خلال العامين الأولين. 1 من بين جميع التجار اليوم، ما يقرب من 40٪ يوم التجارة لمدة شهر واحد فقط. في غضون ثلاث سنوات، 13٪ فقط تستمر في التجارة اليوم. بعد خمس سنوات، لا يزال 7٪ فقط. 1 يبيع المتداولون الفائزين بمعدل أعلى بنسبة 50٪ من الخاسرين. 60٪ من المبيعات هي الفائزين، في حين أن 40٪ من المبيعات خاسرة. 2.
الاستنتاج: لماذا معظم التجار يفقدون المال ليس من المستغرب بعد الآن.
بعد الذهاب على هذه الإحصاءات 24 أنه من الواضح جدا أن أقول لماذا التجار تفشل. في كثير من الأحيان لا تستند قرارات التداول على البحث السليم أو طرق التداول اختبارها، ولكن على العواطف، والحاجة إلى الترفيه والأمل لجعل مليون دولار في الملابس الداخلية الخاصة بك. ما ينسى التجار دائما هو أن التداول هو مهنة ويتطلب المهارات التي تحتاج إلى تطوير على مدى سنوات. لذلك، يجب أن تضع في اعتبارها قرارات التداول الخاصة بك وجهة نظر لديك على التداول. لا تتوقع أن تكون مليونيرا بحلول نهاية العام، ولكن ضع في اعتبارك إمكانيات التداول عبر الإنترنت.
& # 8211؛ 2 أوديان (1998): الحجم والتقلب والسعر والربح عندما يكون جميع المتداولين فوق المتوسط.
& # 8211؛ 3 الحلاق، & أمب؛ أوديان (2000): التداول خطير على ثروتك: أداء الاستثمار في الأسهم المشتركة للمستثمرين الأفراد.
& # 8211؛ 4 كومار: من هو المقامر في سوق الأسهم؟
& # 8211؛ 5 باربر، أوديان (2001): الأولاد سيكونون أولاد: الجنس، الثقة الزائدة، والاستثمار في الأسهم المشتركة.
& # 8211؛ 6 كالفيت، L. E.، كامبل، J.، & أمب؛ سوديني P. (2009). المكافحة أو الهروب؟ إعادة موازنة المحفظة من قبل المستثمرين الأفراد.
& # 8211؛ 7 باربر، B. M.، لي، Y.، ليو، Y.، & أمب؛ أوديان، T. (2009). ما مدى خسارة المستثمرين الأفراد من خلال التداول؟
& # 8211؛ 8 غاو، X.، & أمب؛ لين، T. (2018). هل يقوم المستثمرون الأفراد بتداول الأسهم كمقامرة؟ أدلة من التجارب الطبيعية المتكررة.
& # 8211؛ 9 سترايليفيتز، M.، أوديان، T.، & أمب؛ باربر، B. (2018). وحرقت مرة واحدة، خجول مرتين: كيف يؤثر التعلم السذاجة، والخصائص المضادة، والأسف إعادة شراء الأسهم سابقا سول.
& # 8211؛ 10 دا، Z.، إنجلبرغ، J.، & أمب؛ غاو، P. (2018). بحثا عن الاهتمام.
& # 8211؛ 11 دي، S.، غوندي، N. R. & أمب؛ بوتشيراجو، B. (2018). هل توقع أكثر من الحجم؟ تحقيق في مصدر ثقة المستثمرين.
بدون تعليقات.
أضف تعليقا إلغاء الرد.
دورات التداول.
استقالنا من وظائف الشركة، والسفر في العالم، والتجارة عبر الإنترنت ويعيشون الحياة على شروطنا.
نحن نساعد التجار الآخرين تحقيق أحلامهم.
مجلة التداول.
مجلة إدجيونك للتجارة.
منشورات شائعة.
روابط سريعة.
نحن اثنين من الرجال من ألمانيا التي تعبت من 9 إلى 5 وشرعت في رحلة من العمر، والتجارة والسفر أينما ومتى نريد.
نحن متحمسون للعودة كما أننا لن يكون في مكان قريب إلى أين نحن اليوم دون مساعدة من التجار المخضرم الآخرين التي ساعدتنا في البداية.
إذا كنت تنظر في الانضمام إلى مجتمعنا، ونحن نشعر بالفخر من ثقتكم، ونحن سوف نتأكد من أن كل دقيقة مجانية لدينا سوف تنفق على جعل الاستثمار الخاص بك جديرة بالاهتمام.
تنويه المخاطر.
السعر العمل يبوك (مجانا)
أدخل البريد الإلكتروني الخاص بك والحصول على إمكانية الوصول الفوري إلى الكتاب الاليكترونى العمل السعر.

الأسباب لماذا يفقد متداولو الفوركس الأموال.
ومن الحقائق المعروفة أن معظم تجار الفوركس يفشلون. في الواقع، تشير التقديرات إلى أن 96 في المئة من تجار الفوركس يفقدون المال وينتهي بهم الأمر إلى الإقلاع عن التدخين. وجدت ديليفكس أن العديد من التجار فكس أفضل من ذلك، ولكن التجار الجدد لا تزال لديها توقيت صعبة اكتساب الأرض في هذا السوق. لمساعدتك على أن تكون في ذلك بعيد المنال 4 في المئة من التجار الفوز، قمنا بتجميع قائمة من الأسباب الأكثر شيوعا لماذا تجار الفوركس يفقدون المال.
بدء المشورة.
لا تحاول وضرب السوق!
السوق ليس شيئا كنت فاز، ولكن شيئا كنت أفهم والانضمام عندما يتم تعريف الاتجاه. وفي الوقت نفسه، فإن السوق هو الشيء الذي يمكن أن يهز لك إذا كنت تحاول الحصول على الكثير من ذلك مع القليل جدا من رأس المال. إن الضرب في عقلية السوق غالبا ما يدفع المتداولين للتداول ضد الاتجاهات و أوفيروردورس حسابهم الذي هو وصفة مؤكدة للكوارث.
انخفاض رأس المال.
معظم التجار العملات تبدأ من البحث عن وسيلة للخروج من الديون أو لجعل المال السهل. ومن الشائع لتسويق الفوركس أن نشجعكم على التجارة أحجام كبيرة و تجارة عالية الاستدانة لتوليد عوائد كبيرة على كمية صغيرة من رأس المال الأولي. يجب أن يكون لديك بعض المال لجعل بعض المال. فمن الممكن لك لتوليد عوائد متميزة على رأس المال المحدود على المدى القصير. ومع ذلك، مع كمية صغيرة فقط من رأس المال والمخاطر الضخمة، وسوف تجد نفسك يجري العاطفية مع كل أرجوحة من السوق والقفز والخروج وأسوأ الأوقات الممكنة.
الحل: الناس الذين مبتدئين في تداول العملات الأجنبية لا ينبغي أبدا التجارة مع كمية صغيرة فقط من رأس المال. هذه مشكلة صعبة للالتفاف على شخص يريد أن يبدأ التداول على شويسترينغ. $ 1000 هو مبلغ معقول لتبدأ مع إذا كنت التجارة صغيرة جدا (الجزئي الكثير أو أصغر).
خلاف ذلك، كنت مجرد وضع نفسك للكوارث المحتملة.
الفشل في إدارة المخاطر.
إدارة المخاطر هي مفتاح البقاء على قيد الحياة. يمكنك أن تكون متداولا مهرة جدا ولا يزال محوها من سوء إدارة المخاطر. عملك رقم واحد ليس لتحقيق الربح، وإنما لحماية ما لديك. مع نضوب رأس المال الخاص بك، يتم فقدان قدرتك على تحقيق الربح.
الحل: استخدام توقف ونقلها مرة واحدة لديك ربح معقول. استخدم أحجام كبيرة معقولة مقارنة برأس مال حسابك. الأهم من ذلك كله، إذا لم تعد التجارة منطقية، فخرج منها.
بعض التجار يشعرون بأنهم بحاجة للضغط على كل نقطة أخري من هذه الخطوة. هناك أموال في أسواق الفوركس كل يوم. في محاولة للاستيلاء على كل نقطة الماضي قبل أن يتحول زوج العملات يمكن أن يضع لك لتفقد التجارة المربحة التي كنت تتداول.
الحل: يبدو واضحا، ولكن لا يكون الجشع. على ما يرام لاطلاق النار للحصول على ربح معقول ولكن هناك الكثير من النقاط للذهاب حولها. العملات تتحرك كل يوم. ليست هناك حاجة للحصول على هذه النقطة الأخيرة. الفرصة القادمة هي قاب قوسين أو أدنى.
تجارة غير حاسمة.
في بعض الأحيان قد تجد نفسك تعاني من ندم التداول. يحدث هذا عندما تكون التجارة التي تفتحها غير مربحة على الفور وتبدأ تقول لنفسك أنك اخترت الاتجاه الخاطئ.
ثم قمت بإغلاق الصفقة وعكس ذلك، فقط لرؤية السوق نعود في الاتجاه الأولي الذي اخترته.
الحل: اختيار الاتجاه والعصا معه. كل ذلك التحول ذهابا وإيابا سوف تجعلك تفقد قليلا بت من حسابك في وقت واحد.
في محاولة لاختيار قمم أو القيعان.
يحاول العديد من التجار الجدد اختيار نقاط التحول في أزواج العملات. وسوف يضعون تجارة على زوج، وبينما يستمر في الاتجاه الخاطئ، فإنها تستمر في إضافة إلى موقفهم التأكد من أنه على وشك أن يستدير هذا الوقت. إذا كنت تتداول بهذه الطريقة، في النهاية، كنت في نهاية المطاف مع التعرض أكثر بكثير مما كنت تخطط والتجارة السلبية بشكل رهيب.
الحل: التجارة مع هذا الاتجاه. لا يستحق حقوق المفاخرة لاختيار قاع واحد من أصل 10 محاولات. إذا كنت تعتقد أن الاتجاه سوف يتغير، وتريد أن تأخذ التجارة في الاتجاه الجديد ممكن، والانتظار لتغير الاتجاه المؤكد.
إذا كنت ترغب في التقاط الجزء السفلي، والتقاط أسفل في الاتجاه الصعودي، وليس في الاتجاه الهبوطي. إذا كنت ترغب في أعلى، واختيار أعلى في خطوة تصحيحية أعلى، وليس الاتجاه الصعودي في اتجاه هبوطي. إذا كنت ترغب في أعلى، واختيار أعلى في خطوة تصحيحية أعلى، وليس الاتجاه الصعودي.
رفض أن تكون خاطئة.
بعض الصفقات فقط لا تعمل. فمن الطبيعة البشرية تريد أن تكون على حق، ولكن في بعض الأحيان نحن فقط أرين. كمتداول، وأحيانا يكون لديك فقط أن تكون خاطئة والانتقال، بدلا من التشبث بفكرة أن يكون الحق وينتهي مع حساب في مهب.
الحل: من الصعب القيام به، ولكن في بعض الأحيان عليك أن تعترف بأنك ارتكبت خطأ. إما أنك دخلت التجارة لأسباب خاطئة، أو أنها لم تعمل بالطريقة التي خططت لها. في كلتا الحالتين، فإن أفضل شيء يجب القيام به هو مجرد الاعتراف بالخطأ، تفريغ التجارة، والانتقال إلى الفرصة التالية.
شراء نظام.
هناك العديد من & # 34؛ أنظمة تداول العملات الأجنبية & # 34؛ للبيع على شبكة الانترنت. بعض المتداولين هناك يبحثون عن نظام تداول الفوركس دقيقة و # 34؛ 100٪ دقيقة من أي وقت مضى. إنهم يحتفظون بأنظمة الشراء ومحاكمتهم حتى يتخلىوا في النهاية عن اتخاذ قرار بعدم وجود طريقة للفوز.
الحل: نقبل أنه لا يوجد شيء مثل وجبة غداء مجانية. الفوز في تداول العملات الأجنبية يأخذ العمل تماما مثل أي شيء آخر. بناء النظام الخاص بك والتوقف عن شراء أنظمة لا قيمة لها على شبكة الإنترنت.

لماذا معظم التجار يفقدون المال ولماذا يتطلب السوق ذلك.
اليوم، ألقي نظرة أكثر تجريدا وأعمق على قضية & # 8220؛ لماذا معظم التجار يفقدون المال. & # 8221؛ كما تقرأ، وكما أشرت في المقالة، يمكن للأفراد الفرار من السلوك الرعي وخلق فوق المتوسط ​​(أو أقل من المتوسط) يعود. ومع ذلك، من أجل كسر من القطيع هناك الكثير من الأشياء التي يجب أن تكون معروفة عن نفسك، والميول البشرية وكيف تتحد هذه لتشكيل الحركات المجتمعية (الذي يعكس سوق الأسهم). هذه المادة سوف تظهر أن ما تعتقد أنه قد يكون المسار الخاص بك قد يكون الشيء الدقيق الذي هو حفظ لكم جزء من القطيع، وبالتالي الدخول دائما والخروج من السوق في الوقت الخطأ. انها مقالة طويلة إلى حد ما، قد تبول بعض الناس قبالة، ولكن في المدى الطويل قبول والتعلم للتعامل مع القضايا التي يتم تناولها في هذه المقالة قد تساعدك على الانتقال إلى عالم صغير من التجار الناجحين.
لماذا معظم التجار يفقدون المال ولماذا يتطلب السوق ذلك.
بواسطة: كوري ميتشل، مت.
معظم التجار سمعوا الإحصاءات & # 8230؛ & # 8221؛ 95٪ من التجار يفقدون المال، & # 8221؛ & # 8220؛ 5٪ فقط من التجار يمكن أن يعيشوا في ذلك، & # 8221؛ أو & # 8220؛ 1٪ فقط من التجار حقا كسب المال. & # 8221؛ مهما كان عدد معين من الدراسات الحديثة، والحقيقة هي أن العديد من التجار سوف تفقد المال وأنه ببساطة لا يمكن تجنبها (لبعض الأرقام الصعبة، انظر يوم التداول معدل النجاح، والإجابة الشاملة). وتعطى جميع الأسباب لذلك، مثل الحوادث إدارة المال، توقيت سيئة، والسياسة الحكومية السيئة، وضعف التنظيم أو سوء استراتيجية. هذه كلها جيدة وجيدة & # 8230؛ وبعض هذه تلعب بالتأكيد دورا في نجاح التداول الفردي & # 8230؛ ولكن هناك سبب أعمق. سبب أعمق لماذا يفقد معظم التجار بغض النظر عن الطرق التي يستخدمونها. أنا، حتى لو كان جميع التجار يعرفون كيف (نضع في اعتبارنا معرفة، والقيام هما أمران مختلفان جدا) للتجارة بنجاح استنادا إلى الظروف الحالية، لا يزال معظم التجار تفقد على المدى الطويل.
لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ السوق ليست مستقلة عنا، هو لنا.
لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال وما يفشل المتداولون في كثير من الأحيان في إدراكه هو أن السوق هو الحركة الجماعية لأعمالهم وردود فعلهم على أفعالهم وأفعال الآخرين. مربكة الصوت. ضع في اعتبارك هذا: يمكنك وضع علامة تجارية، وتغمض عينيك واضغط على & # 8220؛ أدخل & # 8221؛ (فتح التجارة). ليس لديك أي فكرة عما تفعله السوق (لا تزال عينيك مغلقة)، ولكنك تبدأ في الرد على الإجراء الخاص بك & # 8211؛ كنت أتساءل عما إذا كنت قد اتخذت القرار الصحيح، إذا كان يجب ضبط وقف الخسارة الخاصة بك أو إذا كان يجب أن تحصل في وقت سابق أو في وقت لاحق. لا يزال هذا يحدث بعد فتح عينيك ونرى كيف عملك (التجارة) يتصرف في اتصال مع الآخرين الناس & # 8217؛ s ردود الفعل وردود الفعل. حتى التجار محنك يمكن أن تذهب من خلال هذه المشاعر في بعض الأحيان.
وبعبارة أخرى، فإن السوق هو حلقة عملاقة ردود الفعل، والتي تبين التجار (وأي شخص ينظر إلى السوق) قراءة ميزان الحرارة من المزاج الاجتماعي في ظل التجار، والمجتمع التمديد، تعمل.
يبدو أن معظم التجار يعتقدون أن السوق شيء له قيمة خارجية خارج السعر المنسوب إليه من قبل التجار. أنا أفضل أن أفكر في ذلك كمقياس في الوقت الحقيقي من المجتمع & # 8217؛ s وجهة نظر من قدراتهم الإنتاجية الخاصة & # 8230؛ أو أكثر ببساطة وضع & # 8211؛ المزاج الاجتماعي.
وعندما تفهم الأسواق، فإن الفكرة القائلة بأن الجميع يستطيعون كسب المال ليس فقط غير دقيق ولكن مستحيل ومضحك. كل شخص يجعل المال يعني أنه لا يوجد سوق، لأن من الذي سيأخذ الجانب الآخر من التجارة؟
وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، يشعر معظم التجار أنهم يمكن أن تتحرك مع الحشد لجعل (ورقة) الربح، ومن ثم الخروج قبل الحشد، وتحويل تلك التجارة إلى ربح حقيقي. من الناحية النظرية هذا هو الصوت، ولكن تذكر الجميع هو وضع للقيام بنفس الشيء. ومن هذه الحركة الحشد الذي يسمح للتجار لكسب المال في بعض الأحيان. وبدون وجود جزء كبير من التجار الذين يأتون إلى أسواق القرار نفسها لن يتحركوا ببساطة. فإنه يأخذ قناعة من قبل العديد من التجار لخلق اتجاه، ثم يأخذ قبول مبهجة أن & # 8220؛ وهذا هو المعيار الجديد & # 8221؛ لإنهائها و & # 8220؛ ثنيها. & # 8221؛ ثم يأخذ خيبة الأمل الجماعية لتحطمها بالطريقة الأخرى.
لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ فقط الأفراد يمكن أن تغلب على السوق، وليس الحشد (والحشد هو 80-90 +٪)
فكر في لحظة إذا اتبع كل تاجر قاعدة عدم المخاطرة بأكثر من 1٪ من حسابه في كل صفقة واستخدم استراتيجيات مماثلة من قبل المهنيين. أوامر وقف الخسارة من شأنه أن يؤدي في جميع أنحاء المكان والأسعار سوف تضخم و ديفلات & # 8230؛ تماما كما يفعلون الآن مع الناس التمسك بأنفسهم (وأنواع مختلفة من) استراتيجيات! وبعبارة أخرى، كل شخص يحاول أن يفعل الشيء نفسه & # 8220؛ الحق & # 8221؛ الشيء يخلق نفس تحركات السوق كما يفعل الجميع الخاصة بهم & # 8220؛ خطأ & # 8221؛ شيء.
هذا هو السبب في أن معظم التجار يفقدون المال، ومن المفارقات يجب على التجار التغلب، كما سيد أوغواي يعلن في فيلم الكونغ فو باندا & # 8220؛ واحد غالبا ما يلتقي مصيره على الطريق الذي يأخذ لتجنب ذلك. & # 8221؛
لحسن الحظ، تماما كما أنه يكاد يكون من المستحيل إقناع الثور أن يكون الدب مرة واحدة انه قد اتخذت موقف، فإنه سيكون أكثر لا جدال فيه لإقناع كل تاجر للتداول بطريقة معينة. النقطة هي أنه لا يهم كيف يتداول الناس الآن، أو إذا كان الجميع يتداولون نفس الشيء & # 8230؛ ومعظمهم سيخسرون. محاولة الجماهير لتجنب هذا (أو خلق الأرباح) يخلق خيط جدا أنها في نهاية المطاف معلقة أنفسهم مع.
لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ عدم فهم الطبيعة الحقيقية للأسواق.
تجار ناجحة تجد شيئا يعمل والتمسك به، وعدم السماح للآخرين سحبها بعيدا عن استراتيجيتها. هذا هو المكان الذي يخطئ فيه معظم التجار، ولماذا يفقد الحشد المال. على الرغم من معظم الناس & # 8217؛ ق أفضل الجهود التي يمكن & # 8217؛ ر سحب أنفسهم بعيدا عن الحشد عندما يهم حقا.
عندما يقوم جميع أصدقائك بشراء الأسهم والتحدث عن النفط يذهب 200 $ أو 20 $ (أو أيا كان عدد من اليوم) والمحللين في جميع أنحاء التلفزيون قائلا انها كذلك، فمن الصعب أن تأخذ وجهة نظر مناقضة. بعد كل شيء، إذا كنت تجعل الرهان ضد الجميع، وكنت مخطئا، أصدقائك يضحكون عليك لأنهم & # 8217؛ إعادة التفكير في أرباحهم الورقية التي تستمر في التوسع سوف تكون قابلة للاسترداد في البنك قريبا. كنت تشعر بالأسف على المفقودين على جعل بعض المال وأيضا قد يشعر بعض الخجل الاجتماعي. والسماء سمح لك الحق والناس يكرهون لك لأنك جعلت المال فقط في حين أنها فقدت قميصهم. يبدو سخيفا؟
النظر في الضجة العامة خلال احتجاجات احتلال وول ستريت، أو الناس يشعرون بالاستياء الكبير لصناديق التحوط والتجار التي جعلت المليارات من خلال رؤية انهيار أسعار المساكن والاستفادة من ذلك! أو المدير الذي هو مستاء للحصول على الحفاظ على وظيفته في حين يتم تسريح العديد من موظفيه. غالبا ما يكون التجار الرابحون والمحللون الصحيحون & # 8220؛ المصلوب & # 8221؛ خلال تحول السوق الرئيسية عندما تفقد الأغلبية. (تذكر الأسواق هي انعكاس للمجتمع ومؤشر رئيسي للاقتصاد، لذلك عندما الأسهم تتحرك أسفل الاقتصاد هو تترنح أو بالفعل في الانخفاض، وبالتالي الناس هم بالفعل & # 8220؛ على حافة & # 8221؛ أنفسهم).
فمن السهل جدا أن أقول & # 8220؛ وسوف تتبع الحشد ومن ثم معرفة متى للخروج. & # 8221؛ فعليا هو شيء مختلف تماما & # 8230؛ وهذا هو السبب في الحشود تتحرك معا. ويمكن أن يرجع ذلك إلى حد كبير إلى الميل البشري إلى اتجاهات الاستقراء. الاتجاه الاستقرائي هو الميل إلى عرض الظروف الحالية في العقود الآجلة، في كثير من الأحيان على افتراض كل شيء سيبقى على قدم المساواة. (انظر سوق الأسهم ليست الفيزياء الجزء 1 لأكثر على هذا).
ولا نخطئ، فإن معظم صناديق التحوط وصناديق الاستثمار المشتركة لا تختلف، ومعظمها يضرب جنبا إلى جنب مع المستثمرين والتجار التجزئة، على الرغم من أن عادة لا إلى أقصى المتداول غير المتعلمين الذين هم أكثر عرضة للقضاء تماما حسابه / عندما تذهب الأمور سيئة.
والمثير للاهتمام حقا هو أنه في حين أن صندوق التحوط قد يجعل متوسط ​​20٪ / سنة على مدى السنوات العشرين الماضية، فإن متوسط ​​المستثمر في هذا الصندوق لديه ميل كبير لجعل أقل بكثير من ذلك. لماذا ا؟ لأنهم يستثمرون وسحب أموالهم في نقاط خاطئة، تماما كما يفعلون في السوق (انظر الفيديو القصير في نهاية هذه المقالة). صندوق التحوط أو الصندوق المشترك هو سوق (متناهية الصغر)، حيث يمكن للمستثمرين / التجار الإيداع والسحب على أساس الطريقة التي يعتقدون أن الصندوق سوف تفعل.
ملاحظة جانبية: يجب على التجار والمستثمرين أن يكونوا على بينة من & # 8220؛ بريفيفورشيب بياس. & # 8221؛ من المرجح أن نسمع المزيد من القصص عن الناس الذين يجرون القتل من سماع الناس عن فقدان كل شيء لأن الناس الذين فقدوا كل شيء ذهب من العين العامة ولا يتحدثون عنه. القلة التي تجني المال من المؤكد أن تدع الجميع يعرفون عن ذلك، وبالتالي خلق نوع من الوهم & # 8211؛ عمدا أو عن غير قصد & # 8211؛ أن أي شخص يمكن أن تفعل ما فعلوا / تفعل.
ندرك أيضا، الجميع يحدد أن يكون الفرد والتجارة طريقتهم الخاصة، وبفعل ذلك معظم في نهاية المطاف يجري مع الحشد الذي يفقد المال (تذكر سيد أوغواي). لماذا ا؟ لأن كل شخص يتيح ذلك يحدث ... دون عناء. مزاجهم الاجتماعي، سواء كان التفاؤل، الجشع، الخوف، الخ من المرجح أن يغذيه نفس المزاج الاجتماعي السائد في المجتمع. ليس من الخطأ أن يبدأ الأفراد في مثل نفس أنواع الموضات التي يرتديها الجميع. في محاولة للتغيير، فإن غالبية المجتمع ينتهي في التغيير معا، والانتقال نحو رغبات مماثلة وبعيدا عن إبداءات مماثلة. لذلك، ما تقدمه السوق يوفر الشيء بالضبط الذي سوف جذب إغراء التاجر إلى الحشد.
على سبيل المثال، شخص لديه القليل من الخبرة في الاستثمار في الأسهم يريد أن يتورط لأن الجميع في الدائرة الاجتماعية الخاصة بهم هو، والإعلانات هي في جميع أنحاء التلفزيون وحتى مراسل الأخبار ليلا يتحدثون أكثر بكثير عن كيفية السوق جيدة جدا. في هذه البيئة يمكنك أن تكون متأكدا سيكون هناك الكثير من & # 8220؛ مساعدة اليدين & # 8221؛ للترحيب بهذا المستثمر إلى الحشد، وتعليمهم أن يكونوا جزءا من الحشد والشروع بهم في عالم المكفوفين الرائدة المكفوفين.
لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ إكستريمس تتطلب تقريبا الجميع للحصول على متن الطائرة.
في حين أنه قد يكون بداية لتأتي واضحة، قد لا تزال تتساءل كيف أنه من الممكن معظم الناس يفقدون المال وكيف يبدو للانضمام إلى الحشد في الوقت الخطأ بالضبط.
عندما مزاج اجتماعي، مثل & # 8230؛ أوه، اسمحوا & # 8217؛ نسميها & # 8220؛ الصعود & # 8221؛ يأخذ عقد المجتمع أو شخص، فإنه يمكن أن يكون من الصعب جدا أن نرى الحركة لما هو & # 8211؛ شيء سوف تمر! كل شيء يمر (تماما مثل مزاجنا يتذبذب) & # 8230؛ تماما مثل الجنون على المصابيح الخزامى (انظر: الأوهام الشعبية الاستثنائية وجنون الحشود من قبل تشارلز ماكاي). حتى الناس شراء وشراء وشراء، ومن ثم الناس الآخرين يرون هذا وشراء وشراء وشراء.
ثم هناك الناس الذين يمسكون، ويقول & # 8220؛ بأي حال من الأحوال، وأنا لا تفعل ذلك مرة أخرى. وعلى أي حال، سمعت 80٪ من المحللين بالفعل صعودي بحيث يمكن & # 8217؛ ر تذهب أي أعلى. & # 8221؛ ولكن السوق يبقى موقوتة أعلى وحتى عدد قليل من ستراغلرز الانضمام في وشراء. لا يزال بعض التمسك والسوق يبقى موقوتة أعلى. وأخيرا، 85٪ من السكان صعودي، ولا يزال هناك بعض ستراغلرز & # 8230؛ والسوق يستمر في الارتفاع. الناس يعلنون إنجازاتهم ويرددون أن دورات الازدهار والكساد هي شيء من الماضي. أخيرا، أصبح كل شخص ثورا، يمتلك الأسهم، وإذا قرروا عدم شراء، فقد تخلى (أو قيل لإغلاق) في محاولة لتحذير الآخرين لا لشراء & # 8230؛ والسوق يغرق طريق اخر.
يظهر الرسم البياني أدناه هذا بطريقة مختلفة قليلا. وبما أن العمل أكثر أهمية من الكلام، فعندما يكون لدى مديري الصناديق تقريبا نقود في اليد، فهذا يعني أنهم & # 8220؛ كلهم ​​في & # 8221؛ في السوق وهذا يعني أن العكس من المرجح أن يحدث قريبا. والمشكلة هي أن السوق لا تتراجع بشكل عام إلى أن تصبح الأموال / المستثمرين في كل شيء، وأنها لا تحرك بشكل كبير حتى يتم سحب المال من السوق، ومعظم الصناديق / المستثمرين يحتفظون بقدر كبير من النقد إلى إعادة الاستثمار.
المصدر: روبرت بريشتر في نيسان / أبريل 2018 من نظرية الموجة إليوت.
ومن غير المرجح أن ينعكس السوق إلى أي درجة كبيرة حتى يكون الجميع تقريبا على جانب واحد. وهو ما يعني أن الجميع تقريبا الذين انضموا إلى هذا الحزب في وقت متأخر سوف تخسر. حفنة من الناس قد تقرر فقط الانتظار، ولكن ذلك سوف السوق. وإذا تم تقسيم الناس ثم السوق سوف تتحرك بطريقة واسعة.
الناس هم العامل الحفاز وبدون أن يخلق الناس تطرفا شديدا في السوق فاز & # 8217؛ ر المتطرفة وعكس & # 8211؛ تذكر أن السوق لا تعمل من تلقاء نفسها، نحن & # 8230؛ الناس & # 8230؛ هي السوق. وبعبارة أخرى، فإن دورات الازدهار والكساد لن تنتهي. نحن التقدم والتراجع ثم التقدم مرة أخرى.
إن محاولة تشريع دورات الازدهار والكساد ليست أكثر من القذف السياسي، وهي نتيجة لنفس العمليات العقلية التي تؤدي إلى ازدهار وكساد في المقام الأول. مرة أخرى أشير إلى تعليق السيد أوغواي & # 8217 في الكونغ فو باندا & # 8220؛ في كثير من الأحيان يلتقي مصيره على الطريق الذي يأخذ لتجنب ذلك. & # 8221؛
المحاولات السياسية لوقف حوادث السوق ليست أكثر من تلبية مصيرنا على الطريق لتجنب ذلك، يتم إنشاء مشكلة أخرى ببساطة أو فقاعة / تحطم يحدث في مكان آخر. فالأسواق ليست أكثر من المزاج الاجتماعي للمجتمع، حيث يعبر المشاركون عن وجهة نظرهم الخاصة وقيمتهم الإنتاجية الجماعية. ويمكن تبسيط ذلك بقول أن إنتاجي الخاص يحدده إلى حد كبير مزاجي العام. إذا كنت تشعر ميؤوس منها أنا لا & # 8217؛ ر العمل بقدر أو الصعب، وأنا بيع الأسهم. إذا كنت أشعر أنني بحالة جيدة أعمل بجد، ولعب بجد وشراء الأسهم. وينطبق ذلك على الجميع تقريبا، بينما تختلف التجارب الفردية، على المستوى المجتمعي الذي تقوم به بنفس الطريقة.
حتى الجميع تقريبا (الذي يراقب هذا الإطار الزمني، ولديها القدرة والاهتمام للتجارة) هو في الاتجاه، فاز & # 8217؛ ر توقف. وسوف يستمر هذا الاتجاه، وإغراء المزيد من الناس في، وعندما يصل الكتلة الحرجة (التي يمكن & # 8217؛ ر دون الكثير من الجميع على متنها) يحدث انعكاس. هذا التغيير في الحظ (للأسوأ) يسبب القلق ثم الذعر كما يحدث انعكاس كامل. وكما مزاج المجتمع لا يزال ينمو أكثر قتامة الناس يشعرون أكثر ميؤوس منها والتخلي عن مفاهيم خيالية لكسب المال مع الأصول وهكذا تستمر الأصول في الانخفاض.
الناس ثم اللوم واختيار المعارك مع الآخرين بسبب سوء حظهم & # 8230؛ إلقاء اللوم على السياسيين والتجار الناجحين الذين ليس لديهم سيطرة أكثر على الوضع من أي شخص آخر. هذا هو نتيجة لاتجاه إنساني آخر لإرباك السبب والنتيجة مع الأحداث التي تحدث ببساطة بالتزامن مع بعضها البعض (انظر & # 8216؛ الشيطان يعطيك رغبة & # 8217؛ سبيل المثال في سوق الأسهم ليست الفيزياء الجزء الثالث وأيضا انظر & # 8216؛ الاحتمالات في التداول & # 8217؛ المثال في الاحتمالات: ما هي احتمالات الاحتمالات في التداول يتم حساب خاطئ؟ الجزء 1).
كان المجتمع المزاج الاجتماعي الذي خلق الوضع، والمزاج الاجتماعي للمجتمع الذي (نحن) أنفسهم هم جزء منه، ساعد على خلق واشترى في.
ثم يصل العكس إلى قمة هبوطية حيث لا يرى الناس أي أمل، ولكن لا تزال هناك أسهم هناك والذهب لشراء وحتى بضعة تبدأ للشراء وتبدأ العملية برمتها مرة أخرى خلق موجات من درجات أصغر وأكبر عبر الزمن.
لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ أرقام بسيطة لعبة.
سيصدر المعلقون الماليون عبارات مثل & # 8220؛ يمكن لمعظم مديري الأموال المحترفين & # 8217؛ الفوز على مؤشر S & أمب؛ P 500 & # 8230؛.blah بلاه بلاه. & # 8221؛ صحيح. ولكن ليس مدير المال المهنية يظهر جهلهم، فمن هؤلاء النقاد الذين لا يفهمون شيئا عن تحركات السوق.
يتم إنشاء معظم حركة السوق من قبل مديري الأموال المهنية الذين يديرون تريليونات الدولارات في الأصول، وأيضا من قبل المهنيين / الشركات الأخرى الذين يحتاجون إلى التعامل أو التحوط المخاطر لمواصلة أعمالهم. لذلك، إذا كان السوق بنسبة 10٪ في السنة، وذلك لأن هؤلاء مديري الصناديق المهنية في المتوسط ​​اشترى السوق بنسبة 10٪. ولذلك، فإنه من المستحيل لمعظم مديري الأموال المهنية لجعل أكثر من 10٪ في ذلك العام، لأنه سيكون معادلا لطالب شخص للضرب عليهم النفس في لعبة التنس.
وستنتشر العائدات من عوائد سلبية إلى عوائد ثلاثية الأرقام، ولكن في المتوسط ​​أنها سوف جعلت حوالي 10٪، ناقص رسوم الإدارة والمصروفات مما يعني أن معظم مديري الصناديق سوف الأداء الضعيف. إذا ارتفع السوق بنسبة 10٪، قد يكون متوسط ​​العائد على التحوط في الملعب من 8 إلى 9٪ بعد الرسوم، وربما أقل.
فإن غالبية المستثمرين والتجار لن تغلب على المعيار لأنهم أنفسهم خلق و هي جزء من هذا المعيار!
هل هذا يعني أن السوق تلتزم بفرضية السوق الفعالة. على الاطلاق. ويستطيع بعض التجار أن يتفوقوا بشكل متسق. تذكر أيضا & # 8220؛ التحيز البقاء & # 8221؛ ذكرت بإيجاز في وقت سابق؟ العديد من التجار والمستثمرين المبتدئين يأتون إلى الأسواق مع حفنة من الفواتير ثم يفقدها. هناك تيار مستمر ومستمر من هؤلاء الناس. أنها تغذي البسيسات من هؤلاء التجار الناجحة. أيضا، حقيقة أن الكثير من الناس تتراكم في (خارج) قمم السوق (قيعان) يعني أن هناك فرص مواتية لتلك التي يمكن أن تبقي العين موضوعية في السوق.
وبما أن معظم التجار يتداولون في إطار زمني أقصر من المستثمرين، فكر في هذا المثال. في اليوم الأول، ارتفع السوق بنسبة 1٪ وفي اليوم الثاني انخفض بنسبة 1٪. معظم التجار سوف تكون قريبة جدا شقة ومن ثم خصم الرسوم وهم في حفرة. بعض التجار سوف تكون مرتفعة بشكل ملحوظ، في حين أن البعض الآخر ينخفض ​​بشكل ملحوظ. أي التجار مربحة والتي هي الخاسرون قد تتغير من يوم لآخر على مدى الأشهر القليلة المقبلة كما يحدث تحركات مماثلة صعودا وهبوطا في السوق. سوف ينخفض ​​الخاسرون المتسارعون، مما يساهم في عدد كبير من التجار الذين يفقدون المال. التجار الذين مربحة في بعض الأحيان، ولكن ليس في كثير من الأحيان، تتحرك ببطء نحو انزلاق في نهاية المطاف من شبكة السوق أيضا.
أيضا النظر في هذا. من أجل قصص المجد يحدث ... كما التجار جعل 100٪ .. 500٪ & # 8230؛ 2000٪ يعود (سواء في يوم واحد، سنة واحدة أو عدة) كم من التجار يجب أن تفقد قميصهم (أو التخلي عن الأرباح) لكي يحدث ذلك؟ الكثير! ننظر في الأمر بطريقة مختلفة. هذا التاجر اليوم الذي جعل $ 6،000،000 في العام الماضي حصلت على هذا المال من مكان ما. وبما أن تجار التجزئة الصغار يؤلفون معظم العدد الإجمالي للتجار (عددهم مرتفع، وصغير قيمته مقارنة بالمهنيين)، فمن المرجح أن مبلغ 6،000،000 دولار تم أخذه من تجار التجزئة عدة آلاف من الدولارات في المرة الواحدة. فقد شخص ما المال (إعطائه لهذا التاجر الناجح) أو تخلى عن الأرباح (السماح للتاجر الناجح بالربح). للتاجر يوم لجعل $ 6،000،000 في السنة، وهذا يعني أن حوالي 120 شخصا خسر 50،000 $ لكل و / أو تخلى عن 50،000 $ لكل منهما في الربح المحتمل!
هذا بالطبع ليس علاقة مباشرة، وهناك أكثر من ذلك، لكنه لا يوفر منظور لا ينظر في كثير من الأحيان.
وبعبارة أخرى، فإن الشيء الذي يجذب الناس في ازدحام إلى الأسواق (عوائد كبيرة) هو السخرية أن معظم هؤلاء الناس سوف يكونون في نهاية خاسرة من هذا التبادل. وفي تطور آخر مثير للسخرية، عندما يتصاعد الناس في السوق في كل مرة من الجشع واعتقاد بأن حقبة جديدة قد بدأت، فإنها تجلب العكس تماما.
كما الأفراد بعيدا عن الحشد.
الحشد ليس حشد حتى معظم المشاركين.
يمكن للحشود & # 8217؛ إنشاء اتجاهات قوية حتى معظم المعنية.
لم ينجح أي اتجاه حتى يتوقف الجميع تقريبا عن الحضور مع الحشد.
عندما يكون الجميع على متن الطائرة، فإنه عكس.
لأنه من المرجح أن & # 8220؛ المال الكبير & # 8221؛ (التي يجب أن تتداول) والتي بدأت الاتجاه ومن المرجح أن تكون الأولى، وهذه النسبة الصغيرة من التجار مع أكبر جيوب من المرجح أن يبقى في دائرة الفائزين، حتى لو كان هذا يعني جعل متوسط ​​عائدات السوق. فعدد كبير من التجار الصغار (نسبة عالية جدا من جميع التجار) الذين يقفزون على الاتجاهات متأخرا جدا (أو مبكرا جدا) ومن ثم يميلون إلى الخروج متأخرا جدا (أو مبكرا جدا) سيخلق نسبة عالية من التجار الذين يفقدون.
ولذلك، فإن معظم التجار يفقدون المال أمر لا مفر منه في الأسواق المالية. فقط عدد قليل من الذين يفهمون هذا المفهوم، الذين يقبلون أن ما يشعر الطبيعية وجيدة من المرجح خيار خاطئ، قد تمكن من كسب المال في هذه اللعبة. في حين أن هذه المادة توفر سياق واسع، فإنه ينطبق على نطاق صغير كذلك. يتم القبض على التجار اليوم في نفس السلوك الحشد دون معرفة ذلك. هذا المخزون الذي فاز & # 8217؛ ر الإقلاع عن التدخين، التي يشاهدون كل يوم قبل قفز أخيرا فقط أن يكون ذلك تحريك الطريق الآخر هو نفس الظاهرة على نطاق أصغر.
يمكن للمشترين والبائعين الحصول على استنفدت، يكره أو رزين على أي إطار زمني. فهي تعاني من رشقات قصيرة و / أو طويلة من العاطفة التي تؤدي إلى إجراءات / ردود فعل قصيرة وطويلة الأجل، وكلها تؤدي إلى أنماط مرئية على جميع الأطر الزمنية. وهناك أيضا درجات من الصعود والهبوط عبر الأطر الزمنية، وهذا يعني في بعض الأحيان سوف أشواط وانتكاسات تكون عدوانية وفي أوقات أخرى أكثر رخاء اعتمادا على كيفية العديد من التجار (والجمهور) المعنية.
ضع في اعتبارك أيضا أنه إذا كان المتوسط ​​المرجعي في مكان قريب من ما يقوم به المهنيون في المتوسط ​​& # 8211؛ فلنفترض أن 15٪ في السنة & # 8211؛ يحاول متوسط ​​تاجر التجزئة أن يحقق أكثر من ذلك بكثير، ويحتمل أن يكون مخاطرا الكثير للقيام بذلك. بالنسبة للأشخاص الذين يرغبون في كسب لقمة العيش من التداول فمن الصعب القيام بذلك قبالة جعل 15٪ / سنة على حساب تداول $ 30،000. وبالتالي، من المرجح أن یفوق المستثمرون في تجارة التجزئة ویخسرون معظم ما یحصلون علیھ من إسھامات مباشرة في العائد بنسبة 15٪ + متوسط ​​مديري صناديق التحوط المربحة باستمرار. بالنسبة لعدة مديري صناديق التحوط لجعل 15٪ على المليارات من الدولارات يعني الكثير من صغار التجار سوف تحتاج إلى إطعام هذا كيتي.
الوقت الوحيد الذي يفوز فيه الأغلبية هو عندما يكون هناك تحول في القدرة الإنتاجية الإجمالية للمجتمع، مثل ارتفاع الأسهم المثير للإعجاب من 80 & # 8217؛ s و 90 & # 8217؛ ق & # 8211؛ & # 8211؛ وكان الجزء الأخير منها أكثر نشوة (فقاعة). في رأيي، كان هناك بعض التقدم الكبير في التكنولوجيا خلال تلك الفترة التي من المحتمل أن تفعل الكثير من الخير، وبالتالي كان هناك ما يبرره. لسوء الحظ، لقد تبددنا في الغالب هذا الخير المحتمل في المقام الأول خلق المنتجات والخدمات التي تقلل الإنتاجية بدلا من زيادة ذلك؛ المنتجات التي توفر لنا هروب من العالم الحقيقي بدلا من مساعدتنا تسخير العالم الحقيقي. هذه التحولات الأساسية الرئيسية لا تحدث في كثير من الأحيان، وهو ما يعني أنه في الهدوء بين معظم التجار والمستثمرين سوف تفقد المال.
لماذا يفقد معظم التجار المال & # 8211؛ الحد الأدنى.
وخلاصة القول أن التجار يجب أن تلتزم خطة محددة جيدا والتجارة التي تخطط حتى عندما يكون غير مريح (وغالبا ما يكون). الغالبية العظمى من السكان، وبالتالي الغالبية العظمى من التجار، مشبك تحت هذا الضغط غير مريح & # 8230؛ بنفس الطريقة التي تصل إلى شريط الشوكولاته بدلا من الجزر. وبما أن معظم السكان أكثر من سعداء للانضمام إلى الحشد، من خلال وجود بعض الانضباط جنبا إلى جنب مع استراتيجية لائقة فمن الممكن أن تكون واحدة من عدد قليل من التجار الناجحين الذين في الواقع يمكن أن تترك الحشد قبل أن ينفجر على نفسها.
أرحب بتعليقاتك أو ردودكم أو أسئلتكم أدناه، سواء أكانوا موافقين أم لا.
هناك بعض القراءة العظيمة حول كيف يبدو علم الأحياء لدينا السلكية لسلوك الحشد. روبرت بريشتر قد جمع بعض من ذلك في كتابه & # 8220؛ مبدأ الموجة للسلوك الاجتماعي البشري والعلوم الجديدة ل سوسيونوميكس & # 8220؛.
بواسطة: كوري ميتشل، مت تابعني على تويتر @ كوريميتك وتحقق من صفحة الفيسبوك لدينا.
كما وعدت، وهنا هو أن الفيديو القصير على كيفية المستثمرين التحوط الصندوق عادة ما يدخلون والخروج في الوقت الخطأ، حتى عندما يكون صندوق التحوط ناجحة. فيديو: بريشتر على صناديق التحوط و ردينغ ووتش هذا الوصف المدهش لكيفية المستثمرين التحوط الصندوق:
69 أفكار حول & لدكو؛ لماذا معظم التجار يفقدون المال و لماذا السوق يتطلب ذلك & رديقو؛
هذه المقالة، إلى جانب التعليقات، ربما واحدة من أفضل المناقشات التي جئت عبر عبر الإنترنت. كما تاجر اليوم مع خمس سنوات من الخبرة (وأنا أدخل السادس السادس من هذا العام) وأنا أتفق مع العديد من وجهات النظر هنا. من الناحية الفنية، أنا دون & # 8217؛ ر التفكير الرسم البياني القراءة أو قراءة من الحشد هو أن من المستحيل، ولكن، كما ذكر آخرون، هو العقل السيطرة العقل الذي هو القلب الحقيقي للمسألة.
الحصول على ذلك تحت السيطرة وثروات حديقة بابل سيكون لك. على الرغم من أنني أرتفع 585٪ على رأسمالي الأولي منذ أن بدأت، كل يوم هو النضال من أجل الحفاظ على العقل باستمرار تحت السيطرة، ولكن أيضا للاتصال بشكل صحيح نقطة تحول على الرسم البياني الحية عند الأخذ بعين الاعتبار مجالات المقاومة على الرسم البياني السنوي.
One thing I have noticed (more) recently is as the market nears areas where the probability of a change of direction becomes significant prices aren’t always obtainable which may indicate our markets are now more infected with algo’s than they have previously been. This may be just a hyper vigilance on my part as to the length of time I have been doing it, so that is something to take into consideration I suppose.
Cheers from the UK.
Interesting comment about “every day is a struggle”…I said almost the exact to someone the other day. The person’s question and my response are below.
Question via email : I was just wondering why do you think the success rate among Fx traders is so low? Do you think it’s because most people don’t have enough time on their hands or haven’t practiced enough?
My response : It’s both those things.
Mainly, it takes longer than anyone expects. Which is why you have to do it because you want to, not for money. When I started and wasn’t making money for 5 or 6 months, I could care less. I was absolutely giddy to get up and trade. I would have eaten Mr. Noodles for the rest of my life, I didn’t care. I just wanted to do it. That is probably one reason why I do well at it.
The practice is the same thing. I am honing my skill all day everyday, but it never feels like it because I just want to do it.
It also about admitting that it isn’t easy. There is no destination . I have never been able to relax and say “I got this now.” It is hard and it takes work, discipline, and focus every day. There is no letting up or letting your guard down, because as soon as that happens another trader will come along and take your money. It’s relentless , and a lot of people can’t handle that. They think that if they put in a bit of time it will become easy. It doesn’t. It is always work, and the market will also try to fool you or cause you to question yourself. That is what I love about…it always keeps you on your toes. People either love that aspect and embrace it, or they go broke.
[I will add that certain things definitely get easier. I don’t have to question my methods anymore, and I know how to handle my emotions, most of the time, when I hit a rough patch. But you can still never let your guard down…even after doing this for about 14 years. Every single trade, and more importantly the time between trades spent staring at charts, is an exercise in discipline to follow a method and not deviate (which my mind still wants to do all the time, but I control it).
And that brings up another point, which was not in my response above. People have an action bias. They want to trade, and so they look for trading opportunities. But successful trading is as much about NOT trading as it is about trading. I only day trade (watch my charts) for about 2 hours per day, that’s about 7200 seconds. Out of those 7200 seconds, my fingers may actually hit my buy and/or sell keys 8 to 20 times. That means actually activity for only 20 seconds out of 7200. THAT is the hard part, controlling yourself to execute only at the VERY few seconds of the trading day where there is a decided edge based on your strategies. For the other 7180 seconds I am left to plan my next move and analyze the market so I am ready to pounce when my next 1-second of physical trading action occurs. I use the time between trades to strategize upcoming trades, rehearse them in my head, run through various scenarios that could develop once I am in the trade and how I will handle them. Not many people do that, which could be another contributor to the low success rate. Just like in chess, the victory goes to the person who uses the moments in between moves to strategize further ahead. ]
That’s a nice reply.
Perhaps I should expand a little; when I say “every day is a struggle”, that’s not completely correct it’s the focus coupled with market action on the day. I’ve been long periods where I have done well, but on occasions I let my guard down by having a ‘bias’ (or a view if you will) about how a particular stock should react to a piece of news or level and don’t hit sell or buy quick enough. أي. for me personally I think it will take at least another two years to find that consistently which I do have for periods, but then, once in a while I ‘ll make a mistake i. e. finishing the day down somewhere between 0.5 – 1% plus on the day. Then I am unduly hard on myself hence the ‘everyday’ is a struggle comment. It’s just about boxing the mistake up and thinking clearly for the next day.
One of the best comment’s I ever read was something along the lines that goes like this; “The market is always telling you something but it’s whether you are listening clearly enough to hear it is saying is the hard part.”
Cheers again. (Just for info I am a day trader of shares and not FX.)
Algorithms, dark pools and stock manipulation. Things the average trader never sees.
Its like central banks sucking out liquidity from the markets. The people who run casinos (stock market) are forming (indirectly) government. Money is just their consent. Whatever they sign (now digitally) becomes money. To make the system perpetual, sometimes the lose willingly (bull market) which doesn’t harm them (consent is without bounds). This is a different perspective.
This article is spot on, alot of people like to dabble in the market, and they lose because of lack of knowledge, and in financial trading what you dont know WILL hurt you, I have personally been part of the 95% of the losing traders in my first year of trading in 2018 and lost alot of money because I was naive and didnt follow my strategy correctly everytime and had bad risk managment and also unrealistic expectations. Forex trading to me needs someone who is emotionally balanced, resilient towards risk (you must be able to deal with losses at times) and keep a clear head even in your winners, dedicate yourself towards educating and improving your edge in trading. I have since become part of the 5% of winning traders and making consistent returns of 5 figures atleast every month eventually because I never really gave up. In conclusion trading is not really for everyone, but if you can stay committed, get a mentor, keep yourself motivated, read self-development books and believe in yourself and you can surely make it in the FX market. My advice, Dont rush to open a Live Account like I did because I was rushing to make money. Focus on making yourself a skilled trader, paper trade, dont underestimate demo trading, practice until you see that you can now consistently make profits month-to-month. Once you have the skill, money will naturally flow in your trading account – and personal bank account! Sometimes You dont need money to make money – you need a SKILL.
Unfortunately the statement here is non-specific and gives no strategy on how to do anything. The only take away I get is avoid the herd mentality by:
1) selling in a bull market.
2) buying in a bear market.
Trevor — would you be willing to email with me a little? I am a fledgling ForEx trader who is quickly dying on the proverbial vine and I need some help and assistance. If you are willing, PLEASE please email me at: [email protected]
Cory well said and written about why most traders lose money. I am not a trader yet but really fascinated and challenged that there is money to be made in trading. The object of trading is to make money right? But why with all these gurus and technological presentations etc still I believe missing the point except of what I read from you. You hit the right button. I am 68 years retired and made most of my money following a simple rule other than my 3 pensions. My simple rule in making money is BUY WHOLESALE AND SELL RETAIL. it seems to me based on your article 99 % of retail and individual traders were doing the opposite without knowing it as you explained. THEY BUY RETAIL AND SELL WHOLESALE. That’s Insane. Show me strategy when to buy wholesale and sell retail in trading with everything factored in, I can make a living or earn an extra income for life. Just a little chunk of profit here and there with minimum loss (exiting when the direction didn’t move as I expected). I am just a simple and uncomplicated minded person. Sure will enjoyed more if I had known trading 20 years ago. It’s never too late to teach an old dog a new trick as they say. Happy new year and a Happy profitable trading to all.
i’ve made lots of money. i am scared all most of all the time. i can’t give it up. i need the money and i love the thrill of the roller coast ride too.
I stumbled onto this page while looking for a figure as to what percent of the investing population trades Futures, for a book I am writing. No luck finding that number, but I do sometimes like reading articles that people post about making money trading. Usually I find humor in the comments of false prophets suggesting they can show you how to make money.
I started reading your article and have to say kudos to you for speaking honestly. Friends ask me regularly how to make money, and I always inform them not even to try. Just invest, watch your tax efficiency, as expenses and gains are one and the same, and over time hope for the best.
One thing I do disagree with though is your comment on statistical aberrations. It is incorrect as a function of the time interval you are using being 1 year intervals. An active professional trader can be reviewed each year on performance of 250 intervals, average and standard deviation. When I think of my personal trading performance, that is how I always saw it, what percent of DAYS I traded positively. Over my career that gives me several thousand data points.
Two other comments I might make for anyone that still wants to play this game, a game I no longer play myself.
Rule 1 – (of my 97 rule number 1’s) – A great trader is not someone who sees the future correctly, it is someone who manages their risk correctly. If you are playing a game that is essentially 50/50 and you take your profits quickly and let your losses run. You are now creating an unequal distribution of scale between your winners and losers, and you are dead before you start, time will finish you quickly. This takes a serious emotional control, one almost requiring a sociopaths personality.
2- Some people really are just spectacular traders – thinking you can play against these people is the equivalent of me thinking I can line up at Right Offensive Tackle against a 300lb Defensive End. The final outcome is not going to be good. The more sophisticated the product – think options – the worse your disadvantage gets. No one reading this should ever trade options.
Once again, Kudos to you for your honesty. It’s rare.
“No one reading this should ever trade options”
Options are both far easier and far more difficult to trade. When structured correctly, a profitable trade can be had while being wrong on direction, timing, and volatility direction, the three main components of option pricing.
In short, just because YOU can’t do it, don’t cast your blanket of dispersion on everyone. I do it successfully as a retail trader. يمكن إنجازه. It’s just damn hard to figure it out.
With all the generosity of my heart, I wish you the best. I didn’t know I had auto-reply on, so I received your comment today in my e-mail. I will stand by what I said and inform you it is coming from someone who started their career at a boutique derivative firm and went on to hold title as head of trading at three of the largest trading firms in the world. My core competency is non-linear derivatives and synthetic structuring, and I pretty much liked to trade in 1,000 lot clips, but thought nothing of taking down 10 to 50 thousand at a time, and have carried into expiration strike risk of over 200,000 on several occasions, which is rather insane, even by my standards. I was also a member of the NYMEX, COMEX, AMEX, CBOT, CBOE, and CME before I turned 27. I retired by the age of 34 because I burned out completely and just couldn’t do it anymore. I also never had a losing month in my career as arbitrage removed the variability that I am sure you see attempting to trade options directionally.
I do wish you well though.
I just re read this article and it really does ring true with me. I am trying to understand why everyone here in the U. K. is so shocked at Trumps win.
Investment analysts across the board are all scratching their heads saying ‘no one saw this coming’ WTF? The excuse is that all the polls and press had it in the can for Hillary.
It just reinforces that the markets ARE an extension of people as a mass. This insight may help me to understand how the market is more likely to behave, do you use that model or do you track back from mainstream thinking to market behaviour, which way round do you assess?
This is tough question, because it changes. Much of the time it is good to follow the herd to a certain extent. I am a trend trader mostly, so when things are going up I am a buyer (only on pullbacks though).
But there does come a point when that sentiment becomes too strong. If a trend has been going up and up and up, eventually everyone starts to take it for granted. By that point nearly everyone who wants to buy, has. With no buyers left, the price starts moving down.
Or we also see sentiment extremes on the downside. As oil was falling earlier this year and last it was profitable to bet on the decline. But once you start reading the mainstream media talking about the disappearance of oil, and nearly everyone you talk to saying oil is finished, that is typically when I start buying (I also started buying because we were near 2009 lows in oil…another bad time in history but oil rallied aggressively off those lows).
So I look at sentiment a little bit, but typically you can just see it by looking at long-term charts (for investments). You see long-term areas where the price has topped out (sentiment too bullish) or bottomed out (sentiment too bearish). In between I typically don’t invest…I just look to buy investments when everyone else hates them…but that history dictates is a good time to buy. (Sometimes adjustments need to be made for inflation, company growth, etc)
Shorter-term trading is really the same thing, but typically that I am not looking or thinking about sentiment at all. I am just trading trends and taking trades based on favorable reward:risk ratios and making assessments of whether the trend is likely to continue or not (based on recent price action…which gives an idea of whether buyers or sellers are likely to be stronger in over the short-term).
So mostly I rely on my charts, but for investment purposes when I start to hear a lot of extremely biased proclamations on the market, I usually start trading in the opposite direction of such claims.
Thank you for such a thoughtful response, it’s really helpful. Also a great new post today from you, I wish I was already set up for daytrading to take advantage of your insights!
Hi Cory, Nice article. You said, “In my opinion, there were some major advances in technology during that time which could potentially do a lot of good, and thus the rise was warranted. Unfortunately, we have mostly squandered that potential good on primarily creating products and services which decrease productivity instead of increased it; products which provide us an escape from the real world as opposed to help us harness the real world.” I’m curious what those “escape” products are? I’m guessing video games… غير متأكد.
what a depressing article. just what i needed…
Or liberating. Each person can forge their own path. Just depends on how you look at it.
an article telling you have basically ZERO chance of making $ can NOT be liberating sorry… not more than the motto written on the gates of a concentration camp (“work makes you free”).. unless, of course, you have a different definition for that word.
censoring those who disagree, and leaving only positive comments, eh?
maybe its depressing because the points the article is making about how traders loose to the markets hit sensitive points within you. maybe you just don’t want to do the work to investigate these points so become a better trader. how do you think it happens . you wake up one morning and you’re a great trader . no . it takes your work. most traders have an idea of wht they think the markets are. they romanticize it so they can be the winner. but reality hits and the market doesn’t care what a trader thinks. its being the market 100% and if you want to capture profits. get in the flow of the markets.
This is such a great article and the comments and your replies are worthy of a post in themselves, perhaps you could elaborate on the theme in your reply to Abhi’s question, there are some real gems there to be polished!
The whole article has really got me thinking. I have been seriously following investment blogs and websites for a few years now as I find it an intriguing subject matter which straddles many other subjects including behavioural and group psychology and social anthropology (which was actually my subject at university).
There are some incredibly bright and interesting people talking and writing about this field and I love to follow these intelligent guys, I wish I could meet them too and listen! I also enjoy podcasts, which I would love to hear, if you have one.
But, strangely, I am not actually invested in the market as yet. Ha! I may be a late straggler and lose everything! I am enjoying the debate and insight and often philosophical humour that prevails in the articles, there is a depth in this field which is difficult to find in political, economic or business blogs/writing. I’m in it for the wisdom, philosophy and humour and the personalities of the people behind the blogs.
Having said that, naturally I would consider investing and I have a number of fantasy accounts to play with strategies. I have friends who day trade but I would not previously have considered that as a viable way to earn income. But on reading this article, I am thinking day trading would be a very rapid way to learn the reality of trading and the stock market. I feel bad for commenters Fab and Sarbinson’s accounts of their losses after decades in the market. Would day trading be a kind of microcosmic method of learning about how markets work and how to best read them and work in them for a profit?
شكرا على ملاحظاتك. Yes, day trading is like the microcosm of investing. It will show how prices move. Typically patterns that play when day trading also play out over longer time frames as well. While my investing strategies are different than my day trading method, they are based on similar concepts.
If the ultimate goal is to just invest, then learning to day trade–which takes considerable time and effort–seems kind of pointless. Better off just to focus on learning how to invest. But if day trading is the goal, then by all means focus on that.
Whether day trade, swing trading or investing a person only needs to learn one strategy that works for them in order to make money. All other knowledge is excessive, and not required for making money…but may be accumulated for the sake of interest, or to sound intelligent in conversation 🙂
Gud Evng Every One,
Mr. Cory Mitchell Sir,
it’s v. insightful & inspiring article, its cutting the noise and provides smart ideas. Thnx.
kudos to u, for detailed explanations, its v. rare .
My name is Amit, a independent research student and r&d pro from India, Apart from research and work i am having passion in Investment Management, Applied Behavioral Finance & Analytics, Behavioral Science for Investing. writing, reading, learning new things etc.
i want to utilize my research:analytical, due diligence, attention for detail skills for doing investment analysis and do research based trading aswell, but after reading ur article now i want to adjust the focus.
i have 1 question in 2 parts-
a) sum people says “MIMIC ‘ACTIVIST’ INVESTOR’S MOVES”,what ur take on this idea?
b) whr to find the (activist’s) foot prints, in India as well?
Thank you for your time and consideration.
Leadership is not about ur title, it’s about ur behavior : A Wise Man.
a) “MIMIC ‘ACTIVIST’ INVESTOR’S MOVES”,what ur take on this idea? People can do this. But ultimately they still need to follow what the successful trader is doing. This is quite hard. It is no different than just following a winning strategy (following a strategy or a person are the same thing). Most people can’t do it, and end up deviating. So basically no matter what approach you take to the market, assuming it can theoretically produce profits, the ultimate success of that plan relies on the individual’s ability to follow the plan. If you follow what a winning trader does, exactly, you should be profitable. Yet few who take this approach are…see video at end of article.
b) I do not know the successful traders in india, nor do I follow much about the Indian stock market, so I can’t offer any guidance there.
مادة كبيرة. Now the even greater irony. Even without reading the comments above I would imagine the overwhelming majority of such commenters will indicate they totally understand what makes a trader successful.
Cory– Thank you very much for your insightful analysis! The more I use behavioral analysis in my investing, the more successful it becomes. –Steve.
In the end, it’s all about identifying the kind of market your trading in and recognizing it when it shifts to a different type of market and being able to change strategies that work given the market you’re trading in. To get to that point, you have to have inherent, God given traits of perception, patience, intellectual capacity and nerve and years of experience. Most don’t have the innate ability and those that do, usually lack the staying power. That’s why there’s so few who are truly profitable.
This is a great article. People are so obsessed with numbers they forget the market is entirely psychological and largely qualitative and it’s why I find markets fascinating. I realized the keep up with the Jones’s thing ends in doom every time if you stick on that too long. Sell sell sell buy miners.
Hi everyone, I keep studying and learning and trying different strategy but none really seems to work I have done courses read books and still I can t find anything that really give me an hedge, so I start wondering do they really exist? a profitable strategy? I have done long term trading( holding up to 6 month) for 2 years and did well 30% average return per year, I have been day trading for 1 year I m down 10%
That is a respectable day trading return in your first year. Many people lose all their capital in the first year of day trading. You are likely doing some things right, it is just a matter of continuing to fine tune your approach. Look through your trades, and spot areas you could improve. For example, is there a way to make your losses slightly smaller? Does the price tend to run a bit further after you get out? If it does you could seeks to expand your profits slightly. Very minor changes over many trades can take you from being a losing trader to a consistently profitable…but it takes constant monitoring and adjusting to current market conditions.
Your other option is to stick to longer term trading, as that seemed to do well for you 🙂
thank you, yes many times I get out and price keep going up I went from 70% winner to 70% loser since i m studying technical analyses.
Thank you for the insightful information.
In other words the Market is a lagging, not a leading indicatOR.
In what way? The market operates as a leading indicator for the economy.
There are times where there seems to be a disconnect though…. and we will shall see if it continues to act as a leading indicator in the future as more and more central banks interfere with the market. But markets (more accurately: traders and investors) buy/sell based on what is expected in the future, which means markets move in anticipation (lead), and then based on the trader’s conditioning/beliefs they buy/sell based on what they think will happen next, and so on.
Very insightful article. Indeed market is irrational. Oil went up yesterday when it seem that oversupply is still rampant in the market. Lost money by betting against it! =/
Losing trades happen. That is part of trading. But believing oil will fall because of oversupply on a particular day is not a prudent strategy. Oil has been rising for weeks in spite of oversupply. Successful traders trade off things they have tested and that have proven to reliable over and over again. Also, oversupply was the reason for the decline that took oil below $30 in the first place. That information was already priced in. It’s old news. Almost everybody was on-board with that idea, and that is why oil fell so much. But as the article states, when everyone is on-board the trend can’t continue. Oil prices had to go up (in the Canadian Investing Newsletter I have been buying commodity stocks since January). Markets move ahead of the news. They started dropping as oversupply became a potential problem, and then fell heavily when it started getting some publicity. But markets are forward thinking…so the price rises in anticipation of supply eventually dwindling because some oil companies will go bankrupt and as oil producing countries get squeezed financially there is an increased chance of conflict which would further increase oil prices. The drop was priced in, everyone was onboard, which means there was no one left to keep pushing the price lower….so it had to go up. As it pushes up, everyone who sold at the bottom is forced to buy and get out of their losing positions, pushing the price up further.
Ultimately though, none of this matters. Study the charts and find patterns that work over and over again. They are there. Then don’t let the news of the day distract you. Trade the pattern when it occurs, and you will find greater success in the markets.
Hi mitchell, I have created a simulation chart based on random numbers, resultant chart look very similar to our real market charts, there will be trends small, major and all kind of, now seeing that trends also form in randomized charts and today most trading happen by algo hft machines, which are not following trends in most cases rather selling buy to capture the spread, so it confuses me whether the trend formation happen due to conviction of many tradors or some other reason behind it.
Great point and question Abhi. I think your question relates to the fact that something appearing similar is different than cause and effect. Let me explain.
If you go into a casino, you can track whether the roulette ball falls on black or red, or if baccarat hands come up player or banker. If you chart this, you will see trending periods, as well as choppy periods. It will look like a stock chart. Yet we know that the results of the ball falling on red or black or the cards dealt in baccarat are random (assuming fair play).
So you have a good question…if the random charts generated above look like stock charts…are stock charts actually random? I say no. What creates the random charts above can’t be controlled or impacted by the players in the game. Yet with a stock chart, the players do impact what happens on that chart. I can buy and buy and buy, causing an uptrend. But in the casino it doesn’t matter what I do, the cards are already determined. So while your random charts may look like a stock chart, the cause and effect are different.
Stock charts may appear random, but the underlying driver is fear and greed. On a random chart (or in the casino), fear and greed can’t affect the outcome of the cards or spin. Stock movements are created by thousands or people (or few) buying and selling based on their future expectations, but then reacting as their expectations come to fruition or not. While I have never tried, it, I doubt the strategies I use would work on random data. They work on real markets because there are moments when you know emotion will kick in, and the market (other people) will react in a very specific and predictable way.
I do view markets as random much of the time though…I can’t make sense of many of the movements. Yet, trading is about finding those specific criteria and moments where the next move becomes quite predictable. You don’t have that on truly random charts (or games), and therefore, comparing markets to randomness is likely a fruitless endeavor.
The real market is about thresholds and conviction (and other people’s lack of conviction or changing their convictions), and that is often what drives trends. For example, say I decide to start buying a stock. I don’t even need a reason, I just start buying. Other traders notice this, and also start buying. Anyone who sold to me is now in a state of pain as I continue to push the price up. Eventually they start buying (or covering their short positions) because they fear missing more upside, or their short positions are becoming too costly. As more buyers step I become the seller, unloading my shares on those people. That’s the power of markets…one person or a group of people’s convictions can drive the price (changing other people’s convictions, and thus creating a somewhat predictable outcome), which then brings more people into the fray. Then, as the conviction changes again, the same thing happens the other way. The chart may look random, but we collectively affect the outcome…which makes it not random.
This is why most people lose. They chase the price, and then person or group that started the whole move unloads their shares on these people. The way to make money is research and practice ways of spotting where emotion will be high, and a thus a predictable outcome is likely to follow. Most people don’t know that, and so they buy or sell and hope (with little conviction) they are right….and those are the exact people who will create the high emotion trades that make successful traders money.
Hi Mitchell, thank you so much for the detailed reply, your blog is eye opening, I agree that, chart look same but the causes are different and in trading it is greed and fear, which a trader can know, until the trader knows about it, stock market is similar to random number chart 🙂
btw we hear all the time that algo trading in majority, how much the greed/fear factor play here? I deploy some of the high speed order placing mechanism through the robotic softwares that i’ve developed but i have no idea on exact mechanism that large auto/hft trading corp use, it is mixture of man and machine?
btw you can take a look at https://apps. techfied/stock/ for random chart, just need to refresh or press redraw, funny that you will sometimes see very clear support and resistence lines. Although chart is based on pseudo random numbers but i think its not going be radically different from true random generators made using hardware.
Interesting…those randomly generated charts do look like a real stock chart. But yes, the causes behind them are different.
As for mechanical trading, there is technically no greed and fear on the part of the machine, but it is still impacted by greed and fear since other participants in the market are driven by these emotions. Also, even if the market was all mechanical, the bias and strategies of the traders making the robots would create charts/movements that look like what we have now. The market is still a zero sum game. Regardless of the input (mechanical or man) the end result stays the same…the best traders/programs win, and those that don’t know what they are doing will lose.
right, you are always to the point, I am yet to see any profit thru my frequent scalping…. but i hope things will be different now on.
Excellent article Cory Mitchell, thank you for sharing it. It has been really helpful.
Took a day off from trading and came across this article. It’s certainly one of the best articles on trading I have read. The key takeaway (of many) that I got reading this is that the market is a living organism and is a reflection of the “mood” of the traders in that particular market/instrument. What I am beginning to understand and dread is that in a market like futures/ES for example, even a single contract bought or sold can have a ripple effect on the market. What I have seen trading a simple supp/resis strategy recently seems to support this hypothesis.
My results in SIM are much better than in real trading. This leads me to believe that perhaps there are algos running that tracks open positions and number of contracts being traded. For example, if I am looking for a reversal after a run up (I identify my areas of interest premarket and use order flow) and short 10 contracts at my resis area, can these 10 contracts in real trading actually affect the movement? Are there algos that track that there are now 10 extra (vs SIM) open short positions and continue to push price higher to set off stops? Let’s say it does push price higher to set off stops, and another trader jumps in to short 5 contracts, will that 5 contracts affect price to move higher? Machine learning at it’s finest happening here?
Yes, on small and large scales that happens. Your orders do affect the market, because someone else is on the other side of the transaction and doesn’t want to lose. Whether it is one person or hundreds, there is a collective action of those on the other side of the trade to do everything they can to make you lose (and others on your side of the trade as well). And you, and other trades on your side of the market, are trying to do the same to the people on the other side…whether we like to admit it or not.
Here’s some food for though. I used to trade thinly traded stocks. I would watch the level II and see if I could spot bids and offers which looked like short-term traders. I would then take their shares (whether they were bidding or offering) and then continue to push the price offside on them. The goal was to force them out of their position; when they bid or offered to get out of their position at a loss, I would exit my trade at a profit. It is a zero sum game, if I made money, the other trader(s) lost. This is a small scale version of every single transaction that occurs in every market every day…whether a market is liquid or thinly traded this type of action is going on. It is easier to picture though when talking about only a couple traders battling it out in one stock. It’s not manipulation, it’s not unfair, it’s how the market is set up. Now imagine I and the other trader have millions/billions of dollars to trade with. Other people may see us going at it, buying and selling to each other like crazy trying to force the other guy out at a loss, but it has nothing to do with technical or fundamental analysis. Other traders may join in, not knowing what is going on. Now you have a scenario which reflects every liquid stock/market. That is why I only trade off the price action. My goal is to join a trade as soon as I see one side taking victory over the other, then the other side is forced out and I can ride that price wave.
The premise is the same as what you talk about. Analysis (in day trading) matters but not as much as most people think. It is more about adaptation. I (or others) can push the price for no reason at all except to make you exit and produce a profit for myself. Other traders can do the same to you or me. I now trade liquid instruments because I didn’t like picking on other individual traders, but trading something liquid isn’t any different. I am still trying to take positions where I know the other person is likely to lose. Otherwise I lose. That’s the game.
That doesn’t mean it’s impossible to make money though. There are still patterns that develop. If someone noticed what I was trying to do in those stocks, they could have smoked me, I did get smoked from time to time. Trading is much more dynamic than most people think..you are up against thinking and learning people/machines. They will not politely let you take their money, they will fight back, and try to take yours. Longer-term there are factors which drive large scale social mood changes which affect prices over the long-term. But in day trading it is more like chess match–you see what your opponents are doing and they see what you are doing, and both of you are trying to do what you can to win and outsmart others. For example, some days there are may be patterns where traders are triggering false breakouts and then taking the price back the other way. Instead of getting angry and calling the market unfair, notice the pattern and adapt to it.
ES is probably one of the best markets. I really like it and it is one of the better ones to trade. But make no mistake, the person who fills your order to get into a trade does not want to lose either.
It is not cause for dread though. It is an opportunity. When the price action dictates that buyers or sellers are winning the battle, a fairly consistent price action follows because the losers are forced out. That doesn’t mean you win every trade…I only win about 60 to 65% of the time, but more often than not if you watch price action you can see the shift of who is winning. Sometimes you will be wrong, and that is fine, but align yourself with the trend and those who are in a stronger position and the odds will favor you. If you find yourself on the losing side more often, look at the charts…spot the trend and which traders where/are in a stronger position. Consider why you were fooled into picking the wrong direction (or entering/exiting too early or too late), and then adapt. The Trader Mentoring page has some examples of charts with trades from ES: vantagepointtrading/trader-mentoring showing the types of price spots where the odds shift back into the trending/stronger player’s favor.
What if all traders just went long when their trades went against them? Just wait it out. Your cash will be useless until that time but at least it won’t be a loss. And do some traders not use limit stops? OK, I’m not a trader but am trying learn how to manage risk better.
That is actually my point. If no one sells the price doesn’t drop. But since people have to sell at some point prices eventually drop. Only some can wait it out, but not all. Usually when people get really hurt is when the economy isn’t good, and they have to sell their stocks or part of their portfolio to cover other expenses. So yes, some can wait it out, but usually most can’t.
Also, waiting it out isn’t always the best idea. While most stocks and companies bounce back, some don’t. While your portfolio is tanking it is hard to know for sure if the positions you hold will get back where they once were. During a big selloff it often takes years, even decades to recover the losses…if they are recovered at all before you are forced to sell because of outside circumstance.
In my opinion the best way to manage risk is to not avoid the loss. Accept it. Take it early. If you buy a stock because you think it will go up, and instead it falls (10%, or whatever you decide to cap the loss at), sell it. Have a plan and stick with it. Yes, traders and investors can use a stop loss order on their trades. It basically exits the trade at a pre-determined loss amount. I use these on every single trade I take.
Trader or investor the rules of risk management basically stay the same. Risk a small percentage of your account on each trade and sell what doesn’t perform as expected. Eventually nothing will perform as expected and you will have your cash in hand while everyone is watching their portfolios plummet. Of course I am a trader, not a financial advisor. Also I focus on short-term trading on this site; investing is not my thing. In short-term trading there is no reason to allow a loss to mount. Set a risk limit and stay within it. There is always another trade. Take the small loss and move on. As long as losses are kept small the small loss is easily recouped on the trades that do well. The article How to Make a Trading Plan (vantagepointtrading/archives/5835) outlines the very basic steps for formulating a risk controlled market strategy. These steps can be tweaked based on the time frame you wish to trade on (short term, long term, etc)
I have just got a very bad experience in tradingĺ . As my account manager pushy to add 5000.00 USD as this gold account was zero risk. In one day I have lost my 5,000. 00 USD for 2nd trading I was watching my expiration I can’t believe my while I. Watching it it was very slow and stop sometimes I said toy manage what’s the he’ll going on. Something wrong on there. She said yes the NFC has short staff and the gave us o.1% delay signal my trading is all lost I’m begging her to sort it out put back in into account my money it’s like scam.
Till now I really don’t know what to do.
If any one experience like this please let me know. I’m just want My money back.
Obe more thing. My 1st day trade I’ve got a profit almost 2000.00 dollar still not in my account. I I did request to my manager to credit the money to my account. At least I will recover a hit amount and it’s my money though. But still the money not there. This is shocking. Tormented for me.
As a trader and investor for over 20 years I have to say this is one of the best articles I have read in a long time… I love the explanation of why managers never outperform the market… (because they are the market)… I have a dividend growth portfolio and I also day trade (scalp if you will) I have been making money for the past several years scalping by playing gaps. One must have rules and not be afraid to take a loss on a trade when they are wrong. This is the hardest thing for one to do. You must control your emotion and learn how to admit the position you took was wrong. I love the new guys entering the market especially the ones that are going to get rich playing those penny stocks…. الضحك بصوت مرتفع.
Nearly 2 decades under my belt and just blown up. So many lessons learned but after a certain time the mental fight slips, this game requires ur best not ur 2nd best, no less than constant excellence to win in the long term. As i try to find the energy to rebuild i bid the new folks good luck, and if i may give one bit of advice to u. Once u have a good strategy that without doubt works for you, then focus all of ur attention on ur personal mental state that u bring to the market each day (nothing is more important). Neglect this and the market will sniff u out and take u down. I can directly attribute my greatest wins and losses directly to the mental state i was in during those times. Having just blown an account i know my state was tired, burned out, stubborn minded etc.. This is not the state that creates champions by any means, but i allowed it to be the case during this period and paid the hefty price. So take these words to heart on ur journey.
Good article Cory. thanks.
Fab, may I ask how you blew up your account? Was it small losing trades that added up?…or greed and risk trying to get a lot back in a hurry?
Good to hear from someone on here, it was ur option b. Trying to recoup using size and caught during a break in my mental state. There are times where a perfect storm comes together, and this was one of them. Having an edge is so simple in this game its hard to miss (ofcourse there are different degree’s of an edge), but the application of the edge day in day out, through drawdowns, through difficulties in life etc. is what seperates those that stay and those that get booted out.
I can play a beautiful game at times where my state is perfectly calm (no matter the money made or lost, a beautiful game isn’t about that) but that period was not in a good state of mind at all. A rush to make back a drawdown, no calmness, no clarity, a need to bully the market to my will. And like a tornado the storm spun out of control 🙁
Fab I have been in this exact scenario and it sucks but your thoughts describing it was spot on.
I agree with what has been stated after trading for more then 10 years, I advice not to do intraday trade with hard earned money. you will loose one day or the other what ever strategy you deploy.
I have traded intraday for more than 10 years. Actually short-term trading (day trading and swing trading) is the only type of trading I like. It is possible to be consistently successful, but you are correct in you comment about the strategy. It isn’t so much about the strategy used, it is about the ability to adapt strategies to changing market conditions…and being willing to step aside when risks are too high to warrant trading.
Cannot say how strongly I wish I had known this. After doubling my money I then lost 75% of it leaving me with 50% loss. I am out forever but I sure would love to have the money back. It is all designed to make money away from us.
The scary part is someone like me after reading this will now think he has insight into the markets up and downs and will beat the market now with this new found knowledge. I won’t make the mistakes pointed out in the article. As they say a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing in the hand of a “FOOL”.Well I’m off to make a killin!
Haha, one of the best comments ever, Raymond :). Very true. Being aware of the follies of others doesn’t assure profits. Ideas on how to make profits are covered in other articles on the site.
Know thine enemy (market), and don’t even enter the fight till you know how to beat it (thoroughly tested strategy).
I’ve been trading for years and learnt a few hard lessons in the beginning. Investing needs to be taken seriously, whether you are a causal trader or it is your business, hard work and time needs to be spent on it, I agree.
A couple of points most people are hopelessly ignorant about: 1) statistics as they relate to luck and 2) returns as they relate to a professional trader. There are several resources (books and videos) on the net that discuss what is needed in terms of years in the business to know a trader’s results are not just a protracted spell of good fortune. That time frame is way, way longer than most dare imagine. It’s probably best that you don’t research it because you won’t like what the numbers show. (But here’s a hint…Capitalgil mentioned above trading for 20 years before blowing up. That’s well within the statistics.) Statistics don’t give a rip about your ego. So are you looking to be a professional trader or are you really only out to gamble? Here’s a simple way to check: Go research what hedge funds have been around the longest (to filter out the good fortune effect). Now take the top 3. Then look at their respective annualized returns. Hint: It’s not 100%; it’s not 50%; it’s a lot lower than most, again, dare imagine. But if you run a proforma of your ‘trading business’ and it incorporates expected results that match/exceed what the top 3 hedge funds achieve, you’re are without a doubt delusional. It’s the equivalent of walking up to Tiger Woods (even today’s Tiger) and placing an unhandicapped bet with him for a round of golf (assuming you’re not also a golf pro who happens to be reading this). Why would you do that? Trading professionals (aka the 1 percent) are every bit that far removed from you and even purported online trading experts. And if you do start trading and you have annualized returns greater than what they’re achieving, it means one thing and likely one thing only…you are gambling, not trading. So if you have $10,000 you want to trade, how many hours do you want to put in to achieve a respectable 10% return (that equates to $1,000 before taxes)? But couldn’t you have taken a part-time job at minimum wage and made way more than that? Got $100k to put in a trading account…be happy if you (don’t lose it all) net $10,000 at the end of the year. Yep, the part-time job still seems to be a better strategy. But maybe you can gamble your way successfully up to a point and then become a professional. Sorry…that’s just perfecting bad habits that will eventually blow up in your face (read Capitalgil’s post again).Go to YT and search traders blowing up their accounts. You can see it unfolding time and time again and even watch as it happens in slow motion with YT’s variable speed control feature. These are the guys who claim they generating returns greater than the returns of the highest ranked hedge funds. Does that make sense to you? Or do you think maybe the online expert is actually making money via a part-time job?
what if the the average what the hedge funds are doing is 10 % per year, then in ten years they double their capital. By the same token some could perform the same on a smaller time frame….. isn’t it?
Lots of traders make 10% or higher each year. But the vast majority don’t, even if the hedge fund or long-term average gain of stock market is 10%. As the video at the end of the article describes, even if a hedge makes 10% a year (or more), most investors within that fund actually lose money, because they deposit money and pull it out at the wrong times.
Hi, what if everyone understood that and stopped trading – forever? And started being productive instead? What if it was against the law to trade accounts below $500 000? Oh, and side notice – the big money goes bust to from time to time, not only retail. And PS. the answer to these questions is probably a world war or spoliation, plunders like in the old days. There must be the transference of capital goods from small to big, weak to strong – no matter what – so pay your dues and thank almighty you don’t have to kill to eat.
I must add something I noticed recently. Brokers have been putting out comparisons for how profitable their traders are. Like discussed here: forexmagnates/exclusive-q2-2018-us-forex-profitability-report-35-of-retail-clients-gain/
Beware such numbers, as they don’t tell the whole story. In a given quarter about 35% of traders may make money, but 65% are losing. Span that out over several quarters and the statistic indicates that many of the profitable traders will gravitate to the negative sphere. Yet it may not show up in the quarterly stat which will usually stay around 35/65.
Unless it is the same 35% staying profitable, the statistic is useless. To stay in that 35% you need to be consistently profitable, but this stat doesn’t address that. The 35% that are profitable could be different every quarter; and in the quarters they aren’t profitable they are part of the losing group.
We also need to consider survivorship bias. The stats considers trader accounts that are active during the quarter. If you completely draw down your trading account this quarter you are counted in the losing 65%. But since you will be inactive next quarter (no money and no trading) you aren’t counted as a loser again. But this tidbit throws a wrench the idea that 35% of the traders are profitable. Because it doesn’t count all the guys who went broke in previous quarters.
The stat that needs to be divulged is this: Of all the accounts opened since the brokerage began, how many are showing a profit today (or a profit when the account when the account was closed)? You ask that, and I am sure you will get a much much smaller % of profitable traders. A vast majority of the accounts opened will be inactive due to depleted funds.
Here is an example to make this clear. While I was a trader on a trading floor we had about 30 full-time traders. In a given month at least 25 were profitable (but they were all profitable overall, otherwise they wouldn’t have a job). A high percentage of winners.
But what the stat doesn’t tell you is how many traders tried to make it onto the floor and failed. Over the course of 6 years we probably had about 10 guys a month come in for training and attempted to make money. That is about 720 potential traders. They all failed eventually or a few became part of the 30 full-timers and other formerly profitable traders fell out. So instead of 25 out of 30 being profitable (this is the type of stat the brokers are divulging, which is bullshit), we need to count the guys who blew up. The real stat is that 25-30 out of 750 were profitable, or about 4%.
If anyone has a historical brokerage account stat like that I would love to see it…especially if it proves me wrong.
FYI trading is not a zero sum game. Most traders are under this massive delusion. Market makers have an obligation to provide liquidity. The odds are extremely high that your broker is providing the opposite side for your trades. When you lose, that money becomes their profit, plus the commissions. So with their variable spreads and your stop losses, their software aims to take as much money out of your account as possible. Once they’ve made their quota, the traders who are lucky enough not to have gotten stopped out might make a profit; although this is nothing compared to what the brokers will have made in the process. Why don’t you ask your broker who their liquidity provider is and how their variable spreads are calculated. If you’re with a market maker or dealing desk broker, chances are you’ve got no chance of making consistent profits. Your success or more likely, failure as a trader has much more to do with this than any strategy you implement or psychology you adopt.
I don’t think this is the case helen because if you open different charts from different brokers the price movements are the same, to say a brokers softwares is hunting stop losses would mean prices with that broker are not consistent with market prices with other brokers, but that is not the case, i once thought my broker hunts my stop losses but i when i opened different charts the price movements were all synchronised.
The point that trading is most definitely not a zero sum game is correct. It is a negative sum game. The buyer and seller bring X dollars to the table but some of that gets raked off due to commissions and spreads and other ancillary costs (data feed, subscriptions, etc). A zero sum game would be a game of poker at your friend’s house.
In 1990 I went through membership class with 19 other people. After six weeks, I was the only person still standing.
The 95% rule seems to hold. I would say that of every 100 people that lasted maybe 3-4 were truly standout, raking in the money, hand over fist, traders.
Now if you go to a top Ivy school – or equivalent – and get on a top trading desk at a top investment bank, your odds invert and you probably have a 95% chance of success. Success being seven to eight figures a year. So if you want to be a successful trader start thinking about it when you are about 10 years old. 🙂
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95% of retail Forex traders lose money – Is this Fact, or Fiction?
Updated: September 22, 2017.
There is a well known statistic being passed around the Forex community and there is a good chance you’ve come across it, possibly numerous times. Basically, it says that ‘95% of Forex traders lose money’.
For traders who are chasing their dream of becoming a full time Forex trader, or at least trying to achieve even part time trading success; this statement can be a bit of a demotivator.
If 95% are blowing up their accounts, the statistics imply you also will be become one of the losses.
It’s not a very comforting thought is it! In a world of failing traders, what steps can you take to become the minority who survives and make consistent returns from Forex trading?
In this article I want to do some investigating. We are going to try verify the claim ‘95% of Forex traders lose money’. We’re going to go over some supporting evidence, and attempt to conclude if this just a phrase used for scare tactics, or if it is actually based on fact.
Special thanks to War Room member ‘kin’ (marketstudent) for helping me compile the information contained in today’s article.
Let’s go through some of the factual evidence we’ve dug up that supports the statement…
The Evidence that Forex traders lose money.
China bans Forex margin trading.
According to a Reuters article in 2008, the China Banking Regulatory Commission banned banks from offering Forex margin trading to their clients.
“Eighty to 90 percent of players in Forex traders lose money, through banks providing the service were generally making a profit from it, the banking regulator said.”
This quote is useful but far from conclusive.
The profitability of day traders.
“The profitability of day traders” was an article written by Douglas J. Jordan and J. David Diltz, published in the Financial Analysts Journal (Vol. 59, No. 6, Nov-Dec 2003).
If you want to read the full article you will have to pay for it, but the abstract reads as follows:
“We used two distinct methodologies to examine the profitability of a sample of U. S. day traders. The results show that about twice as many day traders lose money as make money. Approximately 20 percent of sample day traders were more than marginally profitable. We found evidence that day-trader profitability is related to movements in the Nasdaq Composite Index.”
All this really does is support our own views on day trading. It’s harder and riskier than the longer term swing trading. But, this still isn’t enough to nail down the statistic as fact, so let’s move on…
The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Taiwan.
“The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Taiwan” is a research paper by Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean published on 14th February 2018 on the Social Science Research Network.
Using data from the Taiwanese Stock Exchange, the performance of day traders over the 15 year period 1992-2006 was evaluated.
The following quote on page 13 is particularly relevant:
“In the average year, 360,000 individuals engage in day trading. While about 13% earn profits net of fees in the typical year, the results of our analysis suggest that less than 2% of day traders (1,000 out of 360,000) are able to outperform consistently.”
This is a very alarming statistic, only 2% of these traders were consistently profitable. Remember though, this study only had day traders under the microscope, and didn’t look any other style of traders. Let’s look at some evidence from the brokers themselves, which factors in a broader range of trading styles.
U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulations.
The U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) introduced new regulation in October 2018 forcing US brokers to lower the amount of leverage that can be offered to customers (maximum limits are 50:1 on major currency pairs and 20:1 on other currency pairs).
US forex brokers are now also forced to disclose the percentage of active forex accounts that are actually profitable.
Michael Greenberg of Forex Magnates has compiled the data for the first quarter of 2018.
The Magnates chart tells us that during the first quarter of 2018, the US brokers listed here reported that an average of.
25% of their ‘active’ accounts where in profit. This is a dramatic increase in percentages that we’ve seen in the other reports we previous covered. This data however is still not good enough to start base conclusions that 95% of Forex traders lose money on for the following reasons.
The chart only shows a handful of US brokers. Aside from Africa, the US actually has the smallest of the retail trading population The data collected is only really from a 4 month period, which is hardly anything The data doesn’t specify if withdrawals and deposits are taken into consideration The data doesn’t show if those accounts are experiencing growth over time, or are just simply ‘up’ from their previous 4 month figure To reinforce on the last point, are these profitable accounts over their ‘high watermark line’, or have they suffered a massive loss, but recovered a small percentage within the 4 month period therefore considered ‘in profit’
The new CFTC disclosure requirements are certainly a step in the right direction towards greater transparency in the Forex industry. However, it is important to treat the percentage figures of winning and losing accounts with a degree of skepticism for the following reasons we just stated.
All of the brokers will be eager to present themselves in the best possible light – so it would not be too surprising if the figures were subject to some manipulation. If a broker can claim to have a higher percentage of winning accounts than their rivals, this may attract new customers to open up accounts with them.
It is important to note that the data only includes “active” accounts (and the definition of “active” maybe interpreted differently by different brokers). We have no idea how many new accounts blew up in their first few months of Forex trading and subsequently became “inactive” (and thus were omitted).
Oanda in particular have been guilty of some creative accounting – their data from Q3 2018 showed that a spectacular 51% of accounts were profitable, 18% more than the nearest competitor. However it turned out that included in their definition of “active” accounts were accounts that contained no trading activity but had simply accrued interest on the account balance!
The CFTC quickly put their foot down and 6 months later we see that the percentage of winning accounts at Oanda has dropped to 38.1%.
As disclosure requirements tighten in the future, these winning percentages are expected to fall even further.
What conclusions we can make from the data.
Even with all the digging we’ve done, and all the evidence we have sifted through, we simply still don’t have enough data to conclusive confirm that ‘95% of Forex traders lose money ’.
One thing is for sure, it doesn’t look good for day traders. The evidence is basically conclusive that only.
2% of day traders can actually consistently turn a profit. This is no surprise to us though, we know day trading is a really stressful and tiring way to approach the market.
Day traders are required to sit in front of the computer for hours on end, staring at price charts while waiting for an intraday trade opportunity to present itself. Most of the day trades are placed with the intention of quickly being in and out of the market over a span of a few hours. With so many retail Forex traders engaging in scalping or day trading strategies, I am not surprised that most Forex traders lose money .
This combination of high frequency trading, and staring at charts all day is very psychologically taxing. Most day traders are failing because their patience wears too thin. They begin to do silly things in the market out of boredom, fatigue or frustration. Swing traders like us, use the core movements from the higher time frames to take easy, longer term trades. Swing traders ride out the dominant market direction it much stress-less fashion.
By doing things like trading with the daily time frame, we don’t have to spend much time in front of the charts. This gives us the freedom to set our trades, and not have the burden of constantly monitoring them for hours. The idea is to be less involved with the market as a whole.
Even though we don’t have anything 100% conclusive to support ‘95% Forex traders lose money’ it’s pretty safe to conclude that a ‘high percentage of Forex traders lose money’.
We have a few variations of this statement that we believe to be justified…
“100% of traders blow their first trading account”
“95% of Forex traders lose money during their first year of trading”
“High frequency traders find it harder to make money consistently than long term traders”
How can you avoid becoming a statistic?
All of the anecdotal and hard evidence examined in this article strongly suggests that Forex traders lose money and the vast majority of traders are not profitable. It is not really possible to arrive at an exact percentage, but we can see that the most conservative estimate suggests that 87% of traders lose. So the soft quoted 95% statistic may be a little high, but it is fair to say that trading is NOT easy.
So how can we as traders avoid being one of the losing statistics. What are the small minority of successful traders doing that everybody else isn’t?
By working with many traders in our Price Action War Room, we’re always on the front line witnessing how traders are ‘shooting themselves in the foot’. Traders who struggle to move forward, and hindering any positive progress with their trading goals all seem to share some similarities.
The trader doesn’t have realistic expectations about the market The trader is over complicating their analysis, trying to make sense of too many variables or looking ‘too deep’ into things The trader is in a bad financial situation and trading with real money that is needed for bills, mortgage etc. The trader is not using positive geared money management to ensure winning trades outperform losers The trader is trading on low time frames, chasing price and market noise instead of using more reliable data from the higher time frames The trader is spending way too much time in front of the charts and over trading The trader has no trading plan and therefore no consistency The trader opens positions during news releases hoping to catch big moves The trader doesn’t know how to take a loss The trader is impatient and doesn’t wait for high probability trade setups.
When you read through that list, how many points are you guilty of? I would bet at least a few. Don’t worry, you’re not the only one. These are everyday issues which traders struggle with and really do hinder their progress of becoming a profitable trader.
Most of the problems are generally a result of psychological weakness. Traders are ‘giving in’ to their inner demons. Unfortunately most traders never build on the character and psychological traits needed to fight these inner temptations. You really need step up, and work on personal improvement to build what it takes to be a good trader.
It’s like a smoker, drug user, or an alcoholic working to overcome their addictions. Deep down they know it’s destroying their health and lives. If they’re not determined and focused enough, it’s easy to fall back into bad habits and start a vicious cycle all over again.
The market will rip you apart, psychologically, in ways you never thought possible. The financial sector is a cruel world which can easily reduce a grown man to tears. It’s important that you understand what your weaknesses are, and face them head on. You’re going to have ups and downs in your trading journey, but just remember …
“What doesn’t kill you will make you stronger”
Do yourself a favor and go back through your history and study your losing trades. Get a pen and paper and make a list of what you think you did wrong when executing each of those losing trades.
I bet you will see a common problem reoccurring on that list. Have that list in front of you when you go to take your next trade. Use this list as a nice reminder of last few times you’ve ‘traded against your better judgement’. Hopefully that it will deter you from making the same mistake again.
Start to tackle your trading weaknesses and self improving to make yourself into a better trader. Give yourself a higher chance of not becoming a fatal statistic. Most Forex traders lose money, but that doesn’t mean you have to. If you’re struggling to find a trading system that doesn’t require you to sit in front of the Forex charts all day.
You maybe be interested in our end of day price action strategies. Stop by the war room information page and check out our price action course details.
Best of luck to you on your trading journey.
Forex junkie & price action trading specialist!
Here I share my knowledge & experinces with technical strategies, focusing on swing trading, and breakout trading.
I am also obessed with trading psychology, and my new area of research - data mining & quantitative analysis.

95 forex traders lose money

لا يزال لديك سؤال؟ اسأل بنفسك!
هل 90٪ من التجار اليوم يفقدون المال؟ :
( The question pertains to trading in Canada, my examples relate to India markets, but principles of profitable trading are same everywhere. )
I am coming across this question for the second time. The first time, I had thought of passing it. But the subject of trading, specially profitable trading being dear to my heart, I had to come back to answer it.
First things first. You have done well to get 30% profit as you have stated. I hope you are still maintaining profitability though would not be surprised if the profit is gone.
Now coming to your question — The answer is YES.
One or two percentage points more or less do not matter. It is a fact that winning traders are far fewer than losing traders.
And this has been emphasized in most of the answers.
Did you just want to confirm this fact which is known to all ? :
It is where most of the answers are not helpful. Just confirming the fact answers the question but is not helpful.
The answer by John Roberson states that about 20% of the traders he has observed made profits. This answer differs from others. The reason given is that were in a good competitive trading environment. And I tend to agree with this reason. These traders trade with the belief that they will be profitable.
I guess that the basic intent of the question is to find out how to stay profitable while day trading fully aware of the fact that 90% of traders lose money.
How To Trade Profitably? :
Contrary to the views expressed in most of the answers, I believe that day trading can be profitable.
The first rule is to believe that it can be done.
People climb mountains, go sky diving, cross Atlantic in hot air balloons and other logic defying activities. If these can be achieved through training, skill and determination, why not trading profitably. In fact, it should be easy.
Trading can be easy and profitable.
Follow these simple steps:
Trade in few select stocks or Index whose price movement has been thoroughly studied by you. No one can understand the movement of thousands of stocks. Pick 3 or 4 and master them. Trade only these stocks.
Aim is to make money not to become an analyst of stocks.
Do not trade without a Stop Loss:
This one rule is the difference between the winning or losing traders. A winning trader gets out of a wrong trade with small loss. A loser lets the losses run.
When in profit, let the profit run.
Do not limit your profit by having targets. Control it with trailing stop losses. Let the market reward you for your patience.
In the answer by John Roberson, where he found 20% profit making traders, the stated fact is that these people were trading in a competitive environment. Such trading improves your results. Even one fellow trader is enough with whom you can discuss your good and bad trades.
This interaction helps.
You may get new insights into your own trade which will help in reducing the losses or improving the profits.
Do not trade every day:
Trade only when the trade setup presents itself. Trading for the sake of trading will not yield profits.
Limit the number of trades. Trade within your comfort zones.
Money Management is the Key:
The loss happens due to trade going wrong. Some trades will certainly go wrong. What is required is the management of this loss amount.
Cut your losses in a wrong trade.
Let your profits run in a right trade.
Take small losses. Try to take big profits.
I have said — try to take big profits. One can only try.
Finally you will get what the market gives you. Do not take 1% profit when the market is willing to give you 6% or more. One good trade should be enough to make up for 2–3 bad trades.
I can go on giving theories, but it would be best explained with real trading example:
Day Trades in Tata Steel Futures in February 2018 :
All the trades were short sells. Only 8 trades were done in the whole month.
All were protected with initial stop loss and then with trailing stop loss. Out of 8 contracts, stop loss was triggered in 2 trades.
The loss was Rs. 2.63 and Rs. 3.37 per share in the losing trades.
The profit was 3.85, 5.70, 5.38, 10.80, 9.84 and 9.84.
The important thing is to keep the losses small.
The above example had more profitable trades, so does not make the point clearly.
This example with 5 losing trades and one winning trade will explain better:
BHEL Futures Day Trades in July 2018 :
There were 6 trades in all, only one of them profitable . The loss in five loss making trades were — 0.00, 1.10, 1.65. 4.40 and 1.90 units respectively.
The profit in single winning trade was 22.10 units.
Here also, only 6 trades were done in the entire month.
This is taking profit through loss management. Losses were kept small, they do not erode the capital, confidence in the trade is maintained and one right trade is enough to earn decent profits.
It is true that about 90% traders lose money.
It is also true that you need not become one of them.
It is true that key to profitable trading is in Money Management and not just in picking right trades.
قلل خسائرك.
Let your profits run.
Do not be deterred by the naysayers that profitable trading is not possible.
Those who strive, they only succeed.
Had Columbus not sailed his ship, America would have remained unknown to us all.
Trade cautiously, trade profitably.
Thanks for reading.
Hi there, great question!
I’m going to let you in on a (not so) secret: it’s much more than 90%. Most of the traders lose money , and even 90% is a conservative estimate.
Don’t get me wrong, well done on your profits so far! But there’s a difference to short term profits and trading consistently . There’s a fair chance that your profits are indeed beginner’s luck :-)
So many traders see day trading as easy money, while it’s the complete opposite! There are many ways to invest your money that are much easier than trading: rental properties, sell something physical on eBay or Etsy, sell an ebook or online course, a drop ship online shop, etc.
So why aren’t more day traders profitable?
Persistence, patience and grit.
The number one reason why thousands of traders don’t make is very simple: they give up. As Rolf indicated, 80% of traders don’t even make it through the 2-year mark . Now, if you’re serious about trading, you treat trading like a business. Have a trading plan , put in the hours, be patient if things don’t work out immediately as you expect. So many professions take years of study, so why should trading be different? Don’t give up, instead have the patience, persistence and grit to carry on. Becoming a day trader is like running a marathon, not a sprint.
Trading feels unnatural.
The reason why so many people belong to group one is because trading goes against our natural instincts and habits . If we see a dollar bill lying on the street, our natural instinct is to grab it so it doesn’t get away. If we lose our car keys, we don’t worry too much because we assume it will turn up again. وقد عمل هذا بالنسبة لنا منذ آلاف السنين لأنها أثبتت فائدة لنا في الحياة.
التداول يختلف على الرغم من.
كمتداول، نحن بحاجة إلى القيام العكس تماما. نحن بحاجة إلى أن نعارض غرائزنا وعاداتنا العميقة إذا أردنا أن نكون مربحين. كن على بينة من التحيزات المعرفية التي من شأنها التأثير على التداول الخاص بك. It’s become the biggest trading cliché, but cut your losses short and let your winners run. تأخر الإشباع على الإشباع الفوري.
Profits trump excitement.
Talk to any beginning trader and they will be able to tell you hours about how exciting it is once you’re in a trade. The thrill of being a part of the market is what they live for! The problem with this is that for many traders, the desire to be in the market is stronger than the desire to win . So after a while, they blow their account and just continue doing the same thing.
However, talk to any seasoned trader and they will tell you that trading is a process that has become somewhat boring. As it should be. علموا أنهم يفضلون أن يكونوا على حق من أن يكونوا في السوق طوال الوقت، وقد اتخذت مشاعرهم (ومعظمهم) من المعادلة.
That doesn’t mean that they can’t be excited about a trade that turned out profitable though! It’s just that they have the self-knowledge to realise that the best way to be consistently profitable is if they execute their trading plan to the letter. The process becomes more important than the outcome. وستظهر نتائج ذلك في نهاية المطاف.
Old habits die hard.
If I could get a dollar for every trader that said to me: “oh, I know I should’ve let the trade alone ” or “oh, I know I should be more patient to get into a trade” and then do EXACTLY THAT SAME THING AGAIN, I’d not have to trade anymore ;-) If this is you: unless you structurally change your habits and measure your results, you’re just blindly taking some random bets. التقاط بعض الكتب العظيمة على علم النفس التداول والبدء في دراسة لماذا تحدث هذه الأشياء والعثور على طرق قابلة للتنفيذ لإصلاحها. Only then, you’ll grow as a trader.
Don’t hesitate to contact me if you have additional questions.
Day trading is an emotional battle. Couple days back I was devastated taking a bad trade while shorting Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Future shares. There was a bullish crab. I was shorting on top of the re-tracement. Refer - TradingView Analysis.
My strategy is a negatively skewed system consisting of high win ratio and low profits but huge unrealized losses. It shorts stocks that is on breakout.
So this happened.
What will most people do? I used to cry in pillows, yelling and blaming on each other. But a calm day trader should still trade because if you lose faith on yourself, you should stop trading at all. You’ve to be consistent.
“If you don’t bet, you can’t win. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.”
So I dumped more money instead of booking loss to support margin of that previous trade. The reason of up move was synthetic effect of it’s parent company’s good results.
New rule has been made - Never trade a sister company on parent company’s results. Today was a good day :)
You need patience, persistence and trust on your system. It’s the trade psychology that makes a people fail.
PS: Now it formed a Doji. Breaking that will create a price action downside or vice versa. Let’s see what happens next.
Edit: It went into profit. Now I am about to again short it.
I write at amitghosh . All my thoughts are carefully crafted there.:)
Check the image below and think of the reply to give PAM.
In my knowledge, I would say that more than 95% of the traders lose money and the remaining 5% traders are the ones who make money of these 95% trades executed. There are some rules on which the marketplace works.
The marketplace is a zero sum game where one persons losses equate to another persons gain. Nobody can place a trade unless another person is placing the exact opposite trade The bigger the trade you want to place the higher the amount of people needed placing the opposite trade. The market cannot continue in one direction without pulling back or consolidating.
“95% of all traders fail” is the most commonly used trading related statistic around the internet. But no research paper exists that proves this number right. Research even suggests that the actual figure is much, much higher. The following article gives you 24 very surprising statistics, economic scientists discovered by analyzing actual broker data and the performance of traders. Some explain very well why most traders lose money.
80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month. Within three years, only 13% continue to day trade. After five years, only 7% remain. Traders sell winners at a 50% higher rate than losers. 60% of sales are winners, while 40% of sales are losers. The average individual investor under performs a market index by 1.5% per year. Active traders under perform by 6.5% annually. Day traders with strong past performance go on to earn strong returns in the future. Though only about 1% of all day traders are able to predictably profit net of fees. Traders with up to a 10 years negative track record continue to trade. This suggest that day traders even continue to trade when they receive a negative signal regarding their ability. Profitable day traders make up a small proportion of all traders – 1.6% in the average year. However, these day traders are very active – accounting for 12% of all day trading activity. Among all traders, profitable traders increase their trading more than unprofitable day traders. Poor individuals tend to spend a greater proportion of their income on lottery purchases and their demand for lottery increases with a decline in their income. Investors with a large differential between their existing economic conditions and their aspiration levels hold riskier stocks in their portfolios. Men trade more than women. And unmarried men trade more than married men. Poor, young men, who live in urban areas and belong to specific minority groups invest more in stocks with lottery-type features. Within each income group, gamblers under perform non-gamblers. Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments. Trading in Taiwan dropped by about 25% when a lottery was introduced in April 2002. During periods with unusually large lottery jackpot, individual investor trading declines. Investors are more likely to repurchase a stock that they previously sold for a profit than one previously sold for a loss. An increase in search frequency [in a specific instrument] predicts higher returns in the following two weeks. Individual investors trade more actively when their most recent trades were successful. Traders don’t learn about trading. “Trading to learn” is no more rational or profitable than playing roulette to learn for the individual investor. The average day trader loses money by a considerable margin after adjusting for transaction costs. [In Taiwan] the losses of individual investors are about 2% of GDP. Investors overweight stocks in the industry in which they are employed. Traders with a high-IQ tend to hold more mutual funds and larger number of stocks. Therefore, benefit more from diversification effects.
It all starts with the desire to make more money one fine day, when there is enough courage to put the plan in motion, one becomes a trader. After that, the trader evolves continuously till he settles into one of the categories. It can be the Scalper or Day trader or the Swing trader or Position trader. After going through all these roles, he finally evolves into an investor…. ready to invest for the long run, by force and not by choice. This is how the the market supports your dream and moves you from a basic trader to a real wise investor, depending on the timeframe.
Hope there was some clarity on types of trader. Decide which type of a trader you want to be….
Source credits: Fox Business & الفوركس مفيدة.
Lack of knowledge about stock market and no expertise causes heavy losses. Day trading takes waves in bull markets and attracts housewives, students, small businessmen, etc who enter into the market due to instant gratification. As all expert advice,
“TRADING IS A GAME OF BRAINS….”
It must not at all be dominated by human emotions like greed, anticipation, gratification, etc. Few reasons to be quoted as keys to loss in intraday trading: Human emotions: All traders enter into intraday trading with a reverie to get rich. One needs to be in discipline, follow stop loss and trading plan strictly to avoid loss. Greed and fear must not be a part of your trading life. Busy day schedules: Due to various liabilities and responsibilities, intraday traders often get distracted. Trading requires utter attention, each movement in stocks must be tracked carefully, interpreted wisely and actions must be taken accordingly. Stress and strain: Those who practice day trading regularly get prone to stress and strain. Market is a highly, notoriously unpredictable, volatile place. Those who experience losses for few consequent days get stressed up and this may lead to depression as well. Also, those who experience profits for few consequent days get so over whelmed that it impacts their mental state. Hence, exaggerated dose of anything is harmful. Fake research houses: There are many tipsters who assure for providing best advices and tips. In the name of this, they often grab lump sum amount from novices and cheat them. This draws the traders into heavy losses. From above discussion, it’s clear that research based advices are needed for day trading but you can’t rely on any tipster. 24 CARAT FINANCIAL SERVICES is a research house known for providing best, accurate, precise and concrete research based recommendations to the customers. Don’t believe in words. Check there track sheet records at Share & Commodity Tips| Stock Market| SEBI and avail for their services now.